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La Liga

Espanyol - Real Sociedad

05/23/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Espanyol
1.6
Total xG
2.8
Real Sociedad
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

8%

1:2

7%

2:2

5%
What influences the xG?
ESPRS

Espanyol

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.07
Tyrhys Dolan on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists)
Omar El Hilali on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)
18% of goal output missing (only 80% available)

Real Sociedad

Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.36
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
+0.05
Mikel Oyarzabal on the bench (15 goals, 4 assists)
Ander Barrenetxea not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists)
Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists)
Jon Gorrotxategi not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists)
Jon MartĂ­n on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists)
45% of goal output missing (only 57% available)
Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Espanyol with Rubén Sånchez: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Real Sociedad with Aihen Muñoz: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Espanyol: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

  • 4
    Espanyol: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

47%

Draw

28%

Away Win

25%

Goals

Over 1.5

78%

Under 1.5

22%

Over 2.5

52%

Under 2.5

48%

Over 3.5

30%

Under 3.5

70%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

75%

Away or Draw

53%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

56%

No

44%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Espanyol with a probability of 47%
  • Real Sociedad's squad is critically weakened, with only 57% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available and 5 key players missing, including Mikel Oyarzabal (15 goals, 4 assists)
  • Espanyol shows an improving form with two consecutive wins, while Real Sociedad remained winless in their last five games
Risk Factors
  • Real Sociedad's historical record against Espanyol is better, with 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 direct duels
  • The RCDE Stadium shows a tendency for low-scoring matches, averaging 1.4 goals per game and only a 20% BTTS rate in the last 5 encounters
Overview

Espanyol (11th place, 45 points) host Real Sociedad (10th place, 45 points) at the RCDE Stadium

La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM

Both teams are level on points in the mid-table

Form

Espanyol recently shows an upward form trend with "DLLWW" (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team recorded 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in their last 5 games, winning their last 2 matches consecutively

Real Sociedad is in a weaker form phase with "DLDDL"

The visitors had no wins, 3 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 encounters, losing their last game

Statistics

Espanyol scored an average of 1.14 goals per game this season and conceded 1.46 goals

At home, the average is 1.11 goals scored and 1.28 goals conceded

Real Sociedad is more offensively potent with 1.57 goals per game, but concedes 1.62 goals

Real Sociedad's away statistics are particularly notable, with an average of 1.62 goals scored and 2.23 goals conceded per away game

Espanyol kept 10 clean sheets, Real Sociedad 3

Both teams scored in 21 of Espanyol's games and 29 of Real Sociedad's games

Over 2.5 goals were scored in 19 Espanyol games and 22 Real Sociedad games

Head-to-Head

Real Sociedad had the upper hand in the 3 direct duels

Real Sociedad won 2 matches, while 1 game ended in a draw and Espanyol remained winless

The goal difference is 3:5 in favor of Real Sociedad

The last encounter on August 24, 2025, ended in a 2:2 draw

Key Players

For Espanyol, Carlos Romero is a key player with 6 goals and 3 assists, his form is recently rising

Roberto FernĂĄndez contributed 6 goals and 3 assists

Edu ExpĂłsito provided 1 goal and 6 assists, with a season average rating of 7.16

For Real Sociedad, Orri Óskarsson is a key player with 8 season goals, including 3 in the last 5 games

Sergio GĂłmez excelled with 5 assists this season, 3 of them in the last 5 games, his form is rising

Carlos Soler scored 4 goals and 3 assists this season

Goalkeepers

Espanyol, expected to start Ángel Fortuño in goal, recorded 10 clean sheets this season

Real Sociedad's goalkeeper Álex Remiro played all 37 season games with an average rating of 6.81 and 3 clean sheets

Influences

The RCDE Stadium has a history of rather low-scoring games with an average of 1.4 goals per game

In the last 5 games at the stadium, both teams scored only once, and there was only one game with over 2.5 goals

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