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Espanyol – Real Sociedad1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Espanyol
1.61
Total xG
2.76
Real Sociedad
1.14
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Espanyol | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive weakness (1.5 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.36 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.05 | |
| Tyrhys Dolan on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Omar El Hilali on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| 18% of goal output missing (only 80% available) | ||
| Mikel Oyarzabal on the bench (15 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Ander Barrenetxea not in squad (3 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Takefusa Kubo on the bench (2 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Jon Gorrotxategi not in squad (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Jon Martín on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 45% of goal output missing (only 57% available) | ||
| Weak away record (1.1 vs 1.6 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Espanyol with a probability of 47%
- Real Sociedad's squad is critically weakened, with only 57% of the usual starting XI's goal threat available and 5 key players missing, including Mikel Oyarzabal (15 goals, 4 assists)
- Espanyol shows an improving form with two consecutive wins, while Real Sociedad remained winless in their last five games
Risks
- Real Sociedad's historical record against Espanyol is better, with 2 wins and 1 draw in 3 direct duels
- The RCDE Stadium shows a tendency for low-scoring matches, averaging 1.4 goals per game and only a 20% BTTS rate in the last 5 encounters
All probabilities
Result
Espanyol47%
Draw28%
Real Sociedad25%
Goals
Over 1.578%
Under 1.522%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.530%
Under 3.570%
Double chance
Espanyol or draw75%
Real Sociedad or draw53%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes56%
No44%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
8%
1:2
7%
2:2
5%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Espanyol with Rubén Sánchez: 2.2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Real Sociedad with Aihen Muñoz: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
- Espanyol: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
- Espanyol: 69% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
Lineups
Espanyol 4-4-2 · Real Sociedad 4-4-2
Espanyol
- 1 Á. Fortuño Viñas
- 2 Rubén Sáez
- 5 F. Calero Villa
- 6 L. Cabrera Sasía
- 22 C. Romero Serrano
- 17 J. Carreras Pagès
- 4 U. González de Zarate Quirós
- 8 E. Expósito Jaén
- 20 A. Roca Vives
- 14 R. Terrats Espacio
- 9 R. Fernández Jaén
Real Sociedad
- 13 U. Marrero Larrañaga
- 2 J. Aramburu
- 38 L. Beitia Aguirregomezcorta
- 5 I. Zubeldía Elorza
- 17 S. Gómez
- 24 L. Sučić
- 8 B. Turrientes Imaz
- 12 Y. Herrera Ravelo
- 47 J. Nguono Ochieng
- 9 O. Óskarsson
- 18 C. Soler Barragán
Substitutes
- 18 C. Pickel
- 13 M. Dmitrović
- 19 E. García Martínez
- 38 C. Riedel
- 23 O. El Hilali
- 24 T. Dolan
- 11 P. Milla Peña
- 15 M. Rubio Lestán
- 12 J. Salinas Morán
- 30 P. Tristán Jiménez
- 32 L. Castell Solé
- 26 M. Londoño Londoño
- 31 J. Martín Vicente
- 10 M. Oyarzabal Ugarte
- 16 D. Ćaleta-Car
- 21 A. Zakharyan
- 6 A. Elustondo Irribaria
- 15 P. Marín Tejada
- 23 B. Méndez Portela
- 3 A. Muñoz Capellán
- 14 T. Kubo
- 41 T. Folgado
- 46 I. Aguirre Basurko
- 33 I. Rupérez Urtasun
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