Match report →
Villarreal – Atlético de Madrid5 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Villarreal
2.05
Total xG
3.16
Atlético de Madrid
1.11
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Villarreal | Atlético de Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.29x league average) | +0.71 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match) | −0.27 | |
| Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average) | −0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match) | +0.10 | |
| Gerard Moreno not in squad (10 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Santi Comesaña not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Matteo Ruggeri on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Robin Le Normand not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis sees Villarreal as 58% likely favorites for a home win, with 2.05 expected home goals compared to 1.11 expected goals for Atlético
- Villarreal's offense shows a positive form development with a current average of 2.0 goals, while Atlético's goal production recently stalled with 1.0 goals
- Villarreal is strong at home, scoring 1.79 goals and conceding only 0.75 goals per home game
Risks
- Atlético Madrid has secured 3 wins in the last 5 head-to-head matches, while Villarreal failed to win any
- Atlético Madrid's defense is very stable this season, with an average of 1.05 goals conceded per game and 14 clean sheets
- Villarreal has suffered defeats in their last two matches
All probabilities
Result
Villarreal58%
Draw24%
Atlético de Madrid19%
Goals
Over 1.584%
Under 1.516%
Over 2.561%
Under 2.539%
Over 3.539%
Under 3.561%
Double chance
Villarreal or draw81%
Atlético de Madrid or draw42%
No draw76%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
11%
2:1
10%
2:0
9%
3:1
7%
3:0
6%
5:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Villarreal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)
- Atlético Madrid with Obed Vargas: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Villarreal with Thomas Partey: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Villarreal: 78% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
Lineups
Villarreal 4-4-2 · Atlético de Madrid 4-3-3
Villarreal
- 25 A. Tenas Ureña
- 15 ?. Mouriño González
- 6 P. Navarro Badenes
- 4 R. Marín Zamora
- 24 A. Pedraza Sag
- 19 N. Pépé
- 18 P. Gueye
- 10 D. Parejo Muñoz
- 20 A. Moleiro González
- 22 A. Pérez Gutiérrez
- 9 G. Mikautadze
Atlético de Madrid
- 1 J. Musso
- 14 M. Llorente Moreno
- 18 M. Pubill Pagès
- 15 C. Lenglet
- 17 D. Hancko
- 10 A. Rodríguez
- 6 J. Resurrección Merodio
- 21 O. Vaargas
- 20 G. Simeone
- 7 A. Griezmann
- 22 A. Lookman
Substitutes
- 11 A. González Martínez
- 2 L. Costa
- 5 W. Kambwala
- 17 T. Buchanan
- 21 T. Oluwaseyi
- 1 L. Reis Júnior
- 23 S. Cardona Bermúdez
- 33 P. Cabanes De La Torre
- 12 R. Palma Veiga
- 37 Carlos Macià
- 38 A. Diatta
- 3 A. Freeman
- 3 M. Ruggeri
- 9 A. Sørloth
- 13 J. Oblak
- 29 R. Belaid Khellil
- 32 J. Franco
- 40 A. Puric
- 34 J. Del Romo
- 37 I. Luque Sierra
- 31 S. Esquivel Gámez
- 47 J. Morcillo Rodrigalvarez
- 61 M. Llorente Cubo
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →