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La Liga

Villarreal - Atlético de Madrid

05/24/2026, 07:00 PM

5 : 1
Expected Goals
Villarreal
2.0
Total xG
3.2
Atlético de Madrid
1.1
Most Likely Scores

1:1

11%

2:1

10%

2:0

9%

3:1

7%

3:0

6%
What influences the xG?
VILADM

Villarreal

Attack strength (1.29x league average)
+0.71
3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (2 goals/match)
+0.10
Gerard Moreno not in squad (10 goals, 0 assists)
Santi Comesaña not in squad (3 goals, 6 assists)

Atlético de Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1 goals/match)
-0.27
Declining form (1 vs 1.9 season average)
-0.27
Matteo Ruggeri on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
Robin Le Normand not in squad (1 goals, 1 assists)
Weak away record (1 vs 1.9 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Villarreal: first goal in 6 of 8 games (75%)

  • 2
    Atlético Madrid with Obed Vargas: 2.5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Villarreal with Thomas Partey: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Villarreal: 78% of xG value comes in the first half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Atlético Madrid: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

24%

Away Win

19%

Goals

Over 1.5

84%

Under 1.5

16%

Over 2.5

61%

Under 2.5

39%

Over 3.5

39%

Under 3.5

61%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

81%

Away or Draw

42%

No Draw

76%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis sees Villarreal as 58% likely favorites for a home win, with 2.05 expected home goals compared to 1.11 expected goals for Atlético
  • Villarreal's offense shows a positive form development with a current average of 2.0 goals, while Atlético's goal production recently stalled with 1.0 goals
  • Villarreal is strong at home, scoring 1.79 goals and conceding only 0.75 goals per home game
Risk Factors
  • Atlético Madrid has secured 3 wins in the last 5 head-to-head matches, while Villarreal failed to win any
  • Atlético Madrid's defense is very stable this season, with an average of 1.05 goals conceded per game and 14 clean sheets
  • Villarreal has suffered defeats in their last two matches
Overview

Villarreal (4th place, 69 points) host Atlético Madrid (3rd place, 69 points) at the Estadio de la Cerámica. This La Liga clash on May 24, 2026, 9:00 PM, is a direct top-of-the-table encounter for Champions League spots. Both teams are level on points and are fighting for a better position for the upcoming season

Form

Villarreal's form in their last five matches is WWDLL, with 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. They have lost their last two league games. Atlético Madrid's form is WLLWW, with 3 wins and 2 losses in their last five matches. The visitors have won their last two league games, indicating a positive trend. W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss

Statistics

Villarreal scores an average of 1.81 goals per game and concedes 1.22 goals. At home, they are strong offensively with an average of 1.79 goals and defensively stable with 0.75 goals conceded per home game. Atlético Madrid scores an average of 1.65 goals per game and concedes 1.05 goals. Away from home, they score 1.69 goals and also concede 1.69 goals per match. The Estadio de la Cerámica recently saw very high-scoring matches with an average of 4.2 goals per game, 4 out of 5 matches ended with both teams scoring, and all 5 matches had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last five head-to-head encounters, Atlético Madrid secured 3 wins, Villarreal none, and there were 2 draws. Atlético Madrid emerged victorious in the last meeting with a 0:2 away win on September 13, 2025. The goal difference of 5:10 goals in these matches also clearly favors Atlético Madrid, highlighting their historical dominance

Key Players

For Villarreal, Georges Mikautadze stands out with 12 season goals and 6 assists, with his form rising and an average rating of 7.54 in his last 5 games. Alberto Moleiro contributed 10 goals and 5 assists. Nicolas Pépé scored 8 goals and 6 assists, showing rising form with a rating of 7.32 in his last 5 games. For Atlético Madrid, Antoine Griezmann is crucial with 7 goals and 3 assists, providing 2 assists in his last 5 games. Ademola Lookman showed good form with 2 goals in his last 4 games. Giuliano Simeone has 4 season goals and 6 assists. Not nominated for Villarreal are Gerard Moreno (10G/0A) and Santi Comesaña (3G/6A). For Atlético Madrid, Matteo Ruggeri (0G/3A) and Robin Le Normand (1G/1A) were not nominated

Goalkeepers

Arnau Tenas of Villarreal had 8 clean sheets this season. Juan Musso of Atlético Madrid recorded 14 clean sheets. Musso has a higher average season rating of 7.14 compared to Tenas with 6.71

Influences

Villarreal has a home advantage with an average of 1.79 goals scored and only 0.75 goals conceded per home game. The Estadio de la Cerámica is known for high-scoring matches, with an average of 4.2 goals per game in the last 5 encounters. Over 2.5 goals were scored in all 5 of these matches

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