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Getafe – Osasuna1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Getafe
1.09
Total xG
1.71
Osasuna
0.62
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Getafe | Osasuna |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.68x league average) | −0.68 | |
| Attack weakness (0.47x league average) | −0.65 | |
| Defensive strength (1.2 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.40 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.31 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.10 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1 season average) | −0.06 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 15 vs 7, 8 places gap) | −0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | −0.04 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 7 vs 15, 8 places gap) | +0.04 | |
| Martín Satriano not in squad (6 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Rubén García on the bench (2 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Raúl Moro on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (1 vs 1.5 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win probability of 45% for Getafe
- Osasuna's defensive vulnerability away from home, conceding an average of 2.27 goals per game
- Getafe's strong home defense concedes only an average of 0.8 goals per game
Risks
- Getafe's low goal production with an average of 0.84 goals per seasonal game
- Getafe has to do without the suspended M. Satriano (6 goals, 1 assist) and D. Dakonam Ortega
- Osasuna is missing V. Muñoz Villanueva (6 goals, 2 assists) and I. Muñoz Cameros (suspended), weakening their attack
All probabilities
Result
Getafe45%
Draw36%
Osasuna19%
Goals
Over 1.553%
Under 1.547%
Over 2.525%
Under 2.576%
Over 3.59%
Under 3.591%
Double chance
Getafe or draw81%
Osasuna or draw55%
No draw64%
Both teams score
Yes32%
No68%
Most likely scores
0:0
20%
1:0
18%
1:1
14%
2:0
11%
0:1
10%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Getafe with Abdel Abqar: 0.3 goals/90 min. Without: 4.6 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Osasuna: 5 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Osasuna: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Osasuna: 74% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Osasuna: 56% of all goals between minutes 76-90 (5 of 9)
Lineups
Getafe 5-3-2 · Osasuna 5-3-2
Getafe
- 13 D. Soria Solís
- 12 A. Nyom
- 3 A. Abqar
- 22 D. Sousa Coutinho Meneses Duarte
- 24 Z. Romero
- 21 J. Iglesias Sánchez
- 6 M. Martín Rielves
- 5 L. Milla Manzanares
- 8 M. Arambarri Rosa
- 23 A. Liso Lahoz
- 19 L. Vásquez
Osasuna
- 1 S. Herrera Pirón
- 19 V. Rosier
- 22 F. Boyomos
- 24 A. Catena Marugán
- 5 J. Herrando Oroz
- 20 J. Galán Gil
- 7 J. Moncayola Tollar
- 6 L. Torró Marset
- 10 A. Oroz
- 9 R. García de Haro
- 17 A. Budimir
Substitutes
- 9 B. Mayoral Moya
- 14 J. Muñoz Jiménez
- 18 A. San Cristóbal Sánchez
- 11 A. Kamara
- 31 I. Bekhoucha Lemlal
- 1 J. Letáček
- 26 D. Cordón Mancha
- 16 D. Rico Salguero
- 20 V. Birmančević
- 44 A. Riquelme González
- 15 J. Boselli Graf
- 46 O. Cáceres
- 41 ?. Arguibide Goñi
- 29 A. Osambela Larraya
- 11 E. Barja Afonso
- 2 I. Benito Sánchez
- 3 Á. Cruz Armada
- 23 A. Bretones Cruz
- 13 A. Fernández Abarisketa
- 16 M. Gómez Bordonado
- 14 R. García Santos
- 18 R. Moro Prescoli
- 31 D. Stamatakis
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