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La Liga

Valencia - FC Barcelona

05/23/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 1
Expected Goals
Valencia
1.1
Total xG
3.1
FC Barcelona
1.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

12%

1:2

10%

0:2

9%

1:3

6%

2:1

6%
What influences the xG?
VALFB

Valencia

Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match)
+0.08
Eray Cömert not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists)
José Gayà not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists)

FC Barcelona

Attack strength (1.61x league average)
+0.92
4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match)
-0.21
Declining form (1.8 vs 2.5 season average)
-0.21
Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap)
+0.07
Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
-0.06
FermĂ­n LĂłpez not in squad (6 goals, 9 assists)
Pedri on the bench (2 goals, 9 assists)
JoĂŁo Cancelo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Jules Koundé on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists)
Roony Bardghji on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    FC Barcelona: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    FC Barcelona: 7 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)

  • 3
    Valencia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    FC Barcelona with Frenkie de Jong: 8.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Valencia with Unai NĂșñez: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

21%

Draw

25%

Away Win

54%

Goals

Over 1.5

82%

Under 1.5

18%

Over 2.5

59%

Under 2.5

41%

Over 3.5

37%

Under 3.5

63%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

46%

Away or Draw

79%

No Draw

75%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 54% probability, indicating FC Barcelona as the clear favorite
  • FC Barcelona dominated the head-to-head encounters, winning all 5 matches with a goal difference of 24-4
  • FC Barcelona is at the top of the league table with 94 points, while Valencia is in 9th place with 46 points
Risk Factors
  • FC Barcelona's goal production is currently stagnant (1.8 goals), while their season average is 2.5 goals
  • Valencia averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive pressure
  • Valencia concedes an average of 1.05 goals per home game, representing an improved home defense compared to their season average
Overview

Valencia (9th place, 46 points) host FC Barcelona (1st place, 94 points) at the Estadio de Mestalla

La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM

Barcelona are already champions, and Valencia are playing for a better mid-table position

Form

Valencia's form in the last five league matches: WLWDW (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

This corresponds to 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss

The last matchday ended with a 4-3 away win against Real Sociedad

FC Barcelona's form in the last five league matches: WWWLW

This corresponds to 4 wins and 1 loss

Barcelona last won 3-1 at home against Real Betis

Statistics

Valencia scores an average of 1.14 goals per home game and concedes 1.05 goals

FC Barcelona scores an average of 2.47 goals away and concedes 1.53 goals

Overall, Valencia has scored 43 goals in 37 games (Avg. 1.16) and conceded 54 goals (Avg. 1.46)

Barcelona has scored an impressive 94 goals in 37 games (Avg. 2.54) and conceded only 33 goals (Avg. 0.89)

At Valencia's stadium, the last 5 games averaged 3.4 total goals per match

Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 games, and 3 out of 5 matches ended with over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, FC Barcelona dominated

Barcelona won all 5 encounters

The goal difference is 24-4 in favor of Barcelona

The last match on September 14, 2025, was won by FC Barcelona away with a 6-0 score

Key Players

Key players for Valencia are:

Hugo Duro (Attacker): 10 season goals, 0 assists, average rating 6.74

Javi Guerra (Midfielder): 3 season goals, 6 assists, last 5 games with 2 goals and 2 assists and a rising form trend

Diego LĂłpez (Attacker): 4 season goals, 1 assist, last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist

Key players for FC Barcelona are:

Ferran Torres (Attacker): 16 season goals, 1 assist, last 5 games with 2 goals

Robert Lewandowski (Attacker): 13 season goals, 2 assists, last 5 games with 1 goal and 1 assist

Marcus Rashford (Attacker): 8 season goals, 8 assists, last 5 games with 2 goals and 1 assist

Not nominated for Barcelona: Fermín López (6G/9A), Pedri (2G/9A), João Cancelo (2G/2A), Jules Koundé (1G/3A), Roony Bardghji (1G/1A)

Not nominated for Valencia: Eray Cömert (2G/1A), José Gayå (1G/2A)

Goalkeepers

Valencia's goalkeeper is Stole Dimitrievski, who has been featured in 19 season games

Valencia's team achieved 9 clean sheets this season

FC Barcelona's goalkeeper is Wojciech Szczesny, who has been featured in 7 season games

Barcelona's team achieved 15 clean sheets this season

Influences

Valencia shows solid home strength with an average of 1.14 home goals and 1.05 goals conceded

The Estadio de Mestalla is known for many goals with an average of 3.4 per match

Both teams scored in 80% of the recent games at Mestalla

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