Match report →
Valencia – FC Barcelona3 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Valencia
1.15
Total xG
3.07
FC Barcelona
1.92
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Valencia | FC Barcelona |
|---|---|---|
| Attack strength (1.61x league average) | +0.92 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | −0.21 | |
| Declining form (1.8 vs 2.5 season average) | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 9 vs 1, 8 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.08 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 1 vs 9, 8 places gap) | +0.07 | |
| Defensive strength (1.1 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | −0.06 | |
| Eray Cömert not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| José Gayà not in squad (1 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Fermín López not in squad (6 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| Pedri on the bench (2 goals, 9 assists) | ||
| João Cancelo on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Jules Koundé on the bench (1 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Roony Bardghji on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts an away win with 54% probability, indicating FC Barcelona as the clear favorite
- FC Barcelona dominated the head-to-head encounters, winning all 5 matches with a goal difference of 24-4
- FC Barcelona is at the top of the league table with 94 points, while Valencia is in 9th place with 46 points
Risks
- FC Barcelona's goal production is currently stagnant (1.8 goals), while their season average is 2.5 goals
- Valencia averaged 3.0 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating limited offensive pressure
- Valencia concedes an average of 1.05 goals per home game, representing an improved home defense compared to their season average
All probabilities
Result
Valencia21%
Draw25%
FC Barcelona54%
Goals
Over 1.582%
Under 1.518%
Over 2.559%
Under 2.541%
Over 3.537%
Under 3.563%
Double chance
Valencia or draw46%
FC Barcelona or draw79%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
1:2
10%
0:2
9%
1:3
6%
2:1
6%
3:1
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- FC Barcelona: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- FC Barcelona: 7 wins in 7 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Valencia: 6 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 1 over 90 minutes
- FC Barcelona with Frenkie de Jong: 8.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Valencia with Unai Núñez: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.3 goals/90 min (5 of 8 games)
Lineups
Valencia 4-4-2 · FC Barcelona 4-2-3-1
Valencia
- 1 S. Dimitrievski
- 4 U. Núñez Gestoso
- 5 C. Tárrega Requeni
- 18 J. García Vayá
- 21 J. Vazquez Alcalde
- 11 L. Rioja González
- 23 F. Ugrinic
- 2 G. Rodríguez
- 16 D. López Noguerol
- 8 J. Guerra Moreno
- 9 H. Duro
FC Barcelona
- 25 W. Szczęsny
- 24 E. García
- 4 R. Araújo da Silva
- 18 G. Martín Langreo
- 3 A. Balde Martínez
- 22 M. Bernal Casas
- 6 Pablo Gaviria
- 7 F. Torres García
- 20 D. Olmo Carvajal
- 14 M. Rashford
- 9 R. Lewandowski
Substitutes
- 6 U. Sadiq Mesbah
- 22 B. Santamaría
- 12 T. Rendall Correia
- 7 A. Danjuma
- 25 J. Agirrezabala
- 17 L. Ramazani
- 10 D. Ribeiro Almeida
- 19 D. Raba Antolí
- 26 R. Iranzo Lendínez
- 27 D. Otorbi
- 29 L. Nuñez Ramirez
- 44 R. Morales
- 17 M. Casadó Torras
- 19 R. Bardghji
- 15 A. Christensen
- 5 P. Cubarsí Paredes
- 21 F. de Jong
- 8 P. López
- 13 J. Pons
- 31 D. Kochen
- 42 X. Espart Font
- 43 T. Marqués Morera
- 2 J. Cavaco Cancelo
- 36 ?. Cortés Moyano
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