Match report →
Real Betis – Levante2 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Real Betis
1.83
Total xG
2.74
Levante
0.91
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Betis | Levante |
|---|---|---|
| Rising form (2.2 vs 1.3 season average) | +0.27 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | +0.14 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 17 vs 5, 12 places gap) | −0.12 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 5 vs 17, 12 places gap) | +0.10 | |
| Giovani Lo Celso on the bench (2 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Víctor García not in squad (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| 3 of last 5 matches with 2+ goals (1.8 goals/match) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Real Betis with a probability of 58%
- Real Betis shows defensive stability at home, conceding an average of 0.86 goals per game
- Levante enters the game with a streak of three consecutive wins
Risks
- Giovani Lo Celso (2 goals/3 assists) is not in the lineup for Real Betis
- Levante concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
- The Estadio Olímpico de Sevilla has a high Over 2.5 goals rate of 80%
All probabilities
Result
Real Betis58%
Draw25%
Levante17%
Goals
Over 1.577%
Under 1.523%
Over 2.552%
Under 2.548%
Over 3.529%
Under 3.571%
Double chance
Real Betis or draw83%
Levante or draw42%
No draw75%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
12%
2:0
11%
2:1
10%
3:0
7%
3:1
6%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Levante: 5 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (100% win rate)
- Levante with Karl Etta Eyong: 7.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1.4 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Real Betis with Isco: 6.6 goals/90 min. Without: 1.7 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Real Betis: 4 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
- Levante: 3 consecutive games with 3+ goals (last 8 games)
Lineups
Real Betis 4-2-3-1 · Levante 4-2-3-1
Real Betis
- 13 A. San Miguel del Castillo
- 2 H. Bellerín Moruno
- 3 D. Llorente Ríos
- 4 Natan
- 12 R. Rodríguez Araya
- 8 P. Fornals Malla
- 21 M. Roca Junqué
- 7 A. dos Santos
- 22 F. Alarcón Suárez
- 10 A. Ezzalzouli
- 19 J. Hernández Suárez
Levante
- 13 M. Ryan
- 22 J. Toljan
- 4 A. De la Fuente Barquilla
- 2 M. Moreno
- 23 M. Sánchez De La Peña
- 10 P. Martínez Andrés
- 16 K. Arriaga
- 26 K. Tunde Ruiz
- 8 J. Olasagasti Imizcoz
- 9 I. Romero de Ávila Araque
- 19 C. Espí Escrihuela
Substitutes
- 16 D. Gómez
- 9 L. Ávila
- 20 G. Lo Celso
- 25 P. López Sabata
- 1 Á. Vallés Rosa
- 11 C. Bakambu
- 23 H. Firpo Adames
- 18 N. Deossa Suárez
- 17 R. Riquelme Reche
- 15 Á. Fidalgo Fernández
- 11 J. Morales Nogales
- 21 K. Etta Eyong
- 12 U. Vencedor Paris
- 1 P. Cuñat Campos
- 3 A. Matturro Romero
- 18 I. Losada Aragunde
- 6 D. Varela Pampín
- 20 O. Rey Erenas
- 14 U. Raghouber
- 27 F. Cortés Gracia
- 29 N. Pérez Gómez
- 55 T. Abed
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →