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La Liga

Real Madrid - Athletic Club

05/23/2026, 07:00 PM

4 : 2
Expected Goals
Real Madrid
1.7
Total xG
2.6
Athletic Club
0.9
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:0

10%

2:1

10%

3:0

6%

1:2

5%
What influences the xG?
RMAC

Real Madrid

3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.28
Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average)
-0.28
3 clean sheets in last 5 matches
-0.15
Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap)
+0.08
Attack strength (1.44x league average)
-0.03
Vinicius Junior on the bench (16 goals, 5 assists)
Brahim DĂ­az on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists)
Dean Huijsen on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists)
Trent Alexander-Arnold  not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)

Athletic Club

Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg)
+0.44
Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap)
-0.10
3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match)
+0.06
Nico Williams not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists)
Yuri Berchiche not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists)
Alejandro Rego on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Madrid: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)

  • 2
    Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Real Madrid with Franco Mastantuono: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 4
    Athletic Club: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)

  • 5
    Athletic Club: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

53%

Draw

28%

Away Win

20%

Goals

Over 1.5

74%

Under 1.5

26%

Over 2.5

48%

Under 2.5

52%

Over 3.5

26%

Under 3.5

74%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

80%

Away or Draw

47%

No Draw

72%

Both Score

Yes

51%

No

49%

Key Factors
  • Real Madrid's strong league position (2nd place) and home performance with 1.95 home goals and only 0.67 goals conceded
  • Real Madrid's clear H2H dominance with 4 wins in 5 direct encounters
  • Significant goal-scorer absences on both sides: V. JĂșnior (16 goals) for Real Madrid and N. Williams (6 goals) for Athletic Club
Risk Factors
  • Real Madrid's goal production is declining in recent form (1.2 goals/game) compared to their season average (2.1 goals/game)
  • Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
  • Athletic Club shows poor form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Overview

Real Madrid (2nd place, 83 points) hosts Athletic Club (12th place, 45 points) at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu. La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM. Real Madrid is fighting for the top spot in the league, while Athletic Club is positioned in the midfield.

Form

Real Madrid shows solid form with DWLWW in their last five matches across all competitions (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss). The team recorded 3 wins, 1 draw, and 1 loss. Their last appearance ended in a win.

Athletic Club is in a more difficult phase with form LWLLD. In their last five matches, they had 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses. Their last appearance was a draw.

Statistics

Real Madrid averaged 1.97 goals scored per game and conceded 0.89 goals per game this season. At home, the average is 1.95 goals scored and only 0.67 goals conceded.

Athletic Club averages 1.11 goals scored per game and concedes 1.46 goals per game. Away, the average is 1.12 goals scored and 1.94 goals conceded.

At the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, the last 5 matches averaged 3.0 goals per game. Both teams scored in 4 out of 5 matches (80%), and more than 2.5 goals were scored in 3 out of 5 matches (60%).

Head-to-Head

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Real Madrid dominated with 4 wins, while Athletic Club secured 1 win. There were no draws.

Real Madrid scored a total of 9 goals compared to Athletic Club's 2 goals. The last encounter on December 03, 2025, saw Real Madrid win comfortably 3-0. The recent record shows Real Madrid's dominance in these matchups.

Key Players

For Real Madrid, these players stand out:

Kylian Mbappé with 24 season goals and 5 assists with an average rating of 7.64.

Federico Valverde with 5 season goals and 8 assists and an average rating of 7.34.

Jude Bellingham with 5 season goals and 4 assists with an average rating of 7.32.

For Athletic Club, the following players are crucial:

Gorka Guruzeta with 9 season goals and 3 assists and an average rating of 6.94.

Iñaki Williams with 3 season goals and 4 assists and an average rating of 6.66.

Robert Navarro with 6 season goals and 1 assist and an average rating of 6.70.

Goalkeepers

Thibaut Courtois of Real Madrid made 31 season appearances. Real Madrid recorded a total of 14 clean sheets.

Álex Padilla of Athletic Club made 1 season appearance. Athletic Club kept 6 clean sheets this season.

Influences

Real Madrid benefits from the home advantage at the Estadio Santiago Bernabéu, where the team scores an average of 1.95 goals and concedes only 0.67 goals.

The stadium's last 5 matches showed an average of 3.0 goals per game, with both teams scoring in 4 out of 5 cases and more than 2.5 goals scored in 3 out of 5 cases. The surface is grass.

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