Match report →
Real Madrid – Athletic Club4 : 2
Why the model thinks so
Real Madrid
1.65
Total xG
2.58
Athletic Club
0.93
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Real Madrid | Athletic Club |
|---|---|---|
| Defensive strength (1.6 conceded vs 1.1 league avg) | +0.44 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.28 | |
| Declining form (1.2 vs 2.1 season average) | −0.28 | |
| 3 clean sheets in last 5 matches | −0.15 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 12 vs 2, 10 places gap) | −0.10 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 2 vs 12, 10 places gap) | +0.08 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.06 | |
| Attack strength (1.44x league average) | −0.03 | |
| Vinicius Junior on the bench (16 goals, 5 assists) | ||
| Brahim Díaz on the bench (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Dean Huijsen on the bench (2 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Trent Alexander-Arnold not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Nico Williams not in squad (6 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Yuri Berchiche not in squad (0 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Alejandro Rego on the bench (1 goals, 1 assists) |
Key factors
- Real Madrid's strong league position (2nd place) and home performance with 1.95 home goals and only 0.67 goals conceded
- Real Madrid's clear H2H dominance with 4 wins in 5 direct encounters
- Significant goal-scorer absences on both sides: V. Júnior (16 goals) for Real Madrid and N. Williams (6 goals) for Athletic Club
Risks
- Real Madrid's goal production is declining in recent form (1.2 goals/game) compared to their season average (2.1 goals/game)
- Athletic Club concedes an average of 1.94 goals per away game
- Athletic Club shows poor form with 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
All probabilities
Result
Real Madrid53%
Draw28%
Athletic Club20%
Goals
Over 1.574%
Under 1.526%
Over 2.548%
Under 2.552%
Over 3.526%
Under 3.574%
Double chance
Real Madrid or draw80%
Athletic Club or draw47%
No draw72%
Both teams score
Yes51%
No49%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:0
10%
2:1
10%
3:0
6%
1:2
5%
4:2
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Madrid: first goal in 7 of 8 games (88%)
- Athletic Club with Iñigo Ruiz de Galarreta: 2 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Real Madrid with Franco Mastantuono: 4.9 goals/90 min. Without: 1 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Athletic Club: 77% of xG value comes in the second half (last 7 games with xG data)
- Athletic Club: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Real Madrid 4-4-2 · Athletic Club 4-2-3-1
Real Madrid
- 1 T. Courtois
- 2 D. Carvajal Ramos
- 17 R. Asencio del Rosario
- 4 D. Olatukunbo Alaba
- 18 A. Carreras
- 30 F. Mastantuono
- 5 J. Bellingham
- 8 F. Valverde Dipetta
- 45 T. Pitarch Pinar
- 16 G. García Torres
- 10 K. Mbappé
Athletic Club
- 27 ?. Padilla Pérez
- 3 D. Vivian Moreno
- 5 Y. Álvarez López
- 4 A. Paredes Casamichana
- 19 A. Boiro Boiro
- 16 I. Ruiz de Galarreta Etxeberria
- 18 M. Jauregizar Alboniga
- 9 I. Williams Arthuer
- 20 U. Gómez Etxebarria
- 23 R. Navarro Muñoz
- 11 G. Guruzeta Rodríguez
Substitutes
- 20 F. García Torres
- 6 E. Camavinga
- 14 A. Tchouaméni
- 15 A. Guler
- 21 B. Abdelkader Diaz
- 22 A. Rüdiger
- 13 A. Lunin
- 19 D. Ceballos Fernández
- 24 D. Huijsen
- 50 ?. González Pozo
- 51 M. Serrano Salazar
- 30 A. Rego Mora
- 22 N. Serrano Galdeano
- 12 J. Areso Blanco
- 21 M. Sannadi Harrouch
- 25 U. Iruretagoiena Lertxundi
- 14 A. Laporte
- 2 A. Gorosabel Espinosa
- 6 M. Vesga Arruti
- 15 Í. Lekue Martínez
- 24 B. Prados Díaz
- 1 U. Simón Mendibil
- 40 E. Izobodo John
Ready to Get Started?
Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.
Create Account →