đŸ‡Ș🇾

La Liga

Girona - Elche

05/23/2026, 07:00 PM

1 : 1
Expected Goals
Girona
1.3
Total xG
2.3
Elche
1.0
Most Likely Scores

1:1

15%

0:0

11%

1:0

11%

2:1

8%

0:1

8%
What influences the xG?
GIRELC

Girona

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match)
-0.15
Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average)
-0.15
Alejandro Francés on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Elche

Attack weakness (0.76x league average)
-0.15
4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match)
-0.07
André Silva on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists)
29% of goal output missing (only 89% available)
Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Girona with Hugo RincĂłn: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Girona: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games

  • 3
    Girona: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)

  • 4
    Elche with John Donald: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 5
    Elche: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

69%

Under 1.5

31%

Over 2.5

41%

Under 2.5

59%

Over 3.5

21%

Under 3.5

79%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

59%

No Draw

69%

Both Score

Yes

48%

No

52%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Girona with 41%
  • Elche's away defense is very vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.64 goals per game
  • Girona averaged 5.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating offensive strength
Risk Factors
  • Girona's recent form is poor with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches
  • Girona's goal production is currently stalling at 0.6 goals, compared to their season average of 1.11 goals
  • Elche's goal production is currently stalling at 1.2 goals, compared to their season average of 1.44 goals
Overview

Girona (18th place, 40 points) host Elche (16th place, 42 points) at the Estadi Municipal de Montilivi

La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM

A crucial encounter in the lower half of the table, with Elche holding a two-point lead

The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with 41%

Form

Girona's form across all competitions is LLDDL

This corresponds to 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches

Elche's form across all competitions is WLDLW

This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses in the last 5 matches

Statistics

Girona scored an average of 1.03 goals per game this season and conceded 1.46 goals

Elche scored an average of 1.30 goals per game and conceded 1.51 goals

In Girona's home games, an average of 1.05 goals were scored and 1.37 goals were conceded

Elche conceded an average of 2.64 goals per away game

Girona had 6 clean sheets this season, Elche had 8

Both teams scored in 22 of Girona's matches and 26 of Elche's matches

Head-to-Head

In 2 head-to-head matches so far, Girona won 1 and Elche won 1

Overall, Girona scored 2 goals and Elche scored 3 goals

The last encounter on December 7, 2025, ended with a 3-0 victory for Elche

Key Players

For Girona, Viktor Tsygankov (6 goals, 5 assists, avg 7.16 rating) and Azzedine Ounahi (5 goals, 2 assists, avg 7.28 rating) are key attacking players

Joel Roca has scored 1 goal in his last 5 games with a rising form trend

Not nominated for Girona is Alejandro Francés (0 goals, 2 assists)

For Elche, Álvaro Rodríguez (6 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.88 rating) and Germån Valera (4 goals, 5 assists, avg 6.99 rating) are crucial players

Pedro Bigas showed a rising form trend in his last 5 games with 1 goal

Not nominated for Elche is André Silva (10 goals, 0 assists)

Goalkeepers

Girona's goalkeeper Paulo Gazzaniga had 6 clean sheets in 34 season appearances

Elche's goalkeeper MatĂ­as Dituro recorded 8 clean sheets in 21 season appearances

Influences

The Estadi Municipal de Montilivi averaged 2.4 goals per game

Both teams scored in 40% of matches, and over 2.5 goals were scored in 40% of matches

Elche's away defense is vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.64 goals per game

Ready to Get Started?

Create an account and discover data-driven football analyses. Cancel anytime.