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Girona – Elche1 : 1
Why the model thinks so
Girona
1.30
Total xG
2.33
Elche
1.03
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Girona | Elche |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.6 goals/match) | −0.15 | |
| Declining form (0.6 vs 1.1 season average) | −0.15 | |
| Attack weakness (0.76x league average) | −0.15 | |
| 4 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.2 goals/match) | −0.07 | |
| Alejandro Francés on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| André Silva on the bench (10 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| 29% of goal output missing (only 89% available) | ||
| Weak away record (0.8 vs 1.4 goals/match) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win for Girona with 41%
- Elche's away defense is very vulnerable, conceding an average of 2.64 goals per game
- Girona averaged 5.6 shots on target in their last 5 games, indicating offensive strength
Risks
- Girona's recent form is poor with 0 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses in the last 5 matches
- Girona's goal production is currently stalling at 0.6 goals, compared to their season average of 1.11 goals
- Elche's goal production is currently stalling at 1.2 goals, compared to their season average of 1.44 goals
All probabilities
Result
Girona41%
Draw31%
Elche28%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.521%
Under 3.579%
Double chance
Girona or draw72%
Elche or draw59%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
11%
1:0
11%
2:1
8%
0:1
8%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Girona with Hugo Rincón: 5 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Girona: scored only after the break in 4 of 8 games
- Girona: 75% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Elche with John Donald: 3.5 goals/90 min. Without: 1.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Elche: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
Lineups
Girona 4-1-4-1 · Elche 4-1-4-1
Girona
- 13 P. Gazzaniga
- 4 A. Martinez
- 12 V. de Oliveira Nunes dos Reis
- 5 D. López Silva
- 24 A. Moreno Lopera
- 20 A. Witsel
- 21 B. Gil Salvatierra
- 23 I. Martín Núñez
- 18 A. Ounahi
- 3 J. Roca Casals
- 15 V. Tsygankov
Elche
- 1 M. Dituro
- 42 A. Sangaré Traoré
- 22 D. Affengruber
- 23 V. Chust García
- 6 P. Bigas Rigo
- 8 M. Aguado Pallares
- 15 J. Morente Oliva
- 12 G. Villar del Fraile
- 14 A. Febas Pérez
- 11 G. Karabinaite
- 20 ?. Rodríguez Muñoz
Substitutes
- 16 A. Torrijo
- 7 C. Stuani Curbelo
- 9 A. Ruiz Ortega
- 2 H. Rincón Lumbreras
- 6 D. van de Beek
- 25 K. Vladyslav
- 11 T. Lemar
- 1 R. Blanco Veiga
- 8 F. Beltrán Peinado
- 14 C. Echeverri
- 36 R. Artero Ruiz
- 9 A. Valente Silva
- 13 I. Peña Sotorres
- 17 J. Fernández Pomares
- 19 G. Diangana
- 16 M. Carvalho Neto
- 21 L. Pétrot
- 3 A. Giner Pedrosa
- 39 H. García
- 18 J. Donald
- 45 A. Iturbe Encabo
- 5 F. Redondo Solari
- 10 R. Mir Vicente
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