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Celta de Vigo – Sevilla1 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Celta de Vigo
1.32
Total xG
2.31
Sevilla
0.99
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Celta de Vigo | Sevilla |
|---|---|---|
| Attack weakness (0.79x league average) | −0.38 | |
| Defensive weakness (1.4 conceded vs 1.6 league avg) | −0.21 | |
| Standings disadvantage (pos 14 vs 6, 8 places gap) | −0.09 | |
| Attack weakness (0.7x league average) | −0.07 | |
| Standings advantage (pos 6 vs 14, 8 places gap) | +0.05 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.4 goals/match) | +0.03 | |
| 3 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (1.6 goals/match) | +0.02 | |
| Ferran Jutglà on the bench (9 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| Hugo Álvarez on the bench (4 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Rubén Vargas on the bench (3 goals, 6 assists) | ||
| Neal Maupay on the bench (2 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Nemanja Gudelj on the bench (2 goals, 0 assists) | ||
| Weak away record (0.9 vs 1.3 goals/match) |
Key factors
- League Position: Celta de Vigo is in 6th place, significantly ahead of Sevilla in 14th place
- Pipeline Prediction: The model calculates a home win for Celta de Vigo with a 43% probability
- Sevilla Defense: Sevilla concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away game
Risks
- Reduced Goal Threat for Sevilla: Rubén Vargas, Neal Maupay, and Nemanja Gudelj are missing, only 94% of usual goal threat available
- Celta de Vigo Attack: Celta de Vigo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Celta de Vigo42%
Draw31%
Sevilla26%
Goals
Over 1.569%
Under 1.531%
Over 2.541%
Under 2.559%
Over 3.520%
Under 3.580%
Double chance
Celta de Vigo or draw74%
Sevilla or draw58%
No draw69%
Both teams score
Yes48%
No52%
Most likely scores
1:1
15%
0:0
12%
1:0
11%
2:0
9%
2:1
9%
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Sevilla with Alexis Sánchez: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- Sevilla: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- Celta de Vigo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Lineups
Celta de Vigo 3-4-3 · Sevilla 4-3-3
Celta de Vigo
- 13 I. Radu
- 32 J. Rodríguez Galiano
- 29 Y. Lago Amil
- 20 M. Alonso Mendoza
- 17 J. Rueda García
- 8 F. López González
- 6 Ilaix Moriba
- 5 S. Carreira Vilariño
- 10 I. Aspas Juncal
- 7 B. Iglesias Quintas
- 19 W. Swedberg
Sevilla
- 13 Ø. Håskjold Nyland
- 2 José Ángel Carmona
- 3 C. Azpilicueta Tanco
- 4 Kike Salas
- 12 G. Suazo Urbina
- 14 G. Fernández Castellano
- 18 L. Agoume
- 20 D. Sow
- 10 A. Sánchez Sánchez
- 7 I. Romero Bernal
- 36 J. Martínez Gauna
Substitutes
- 14 Á. Núñez Cobo
- 9 F. Jutlgà Blanc
- 18 P. Durán Fernández
- 4 J. Aidoo
- 11 F. Cervi
- 39 J. El-Abdellaoui
- 21 M. Ristić
- 22 H. Sotelo
- 23 H. Álvarez Antúnez
- 3 Ó. Mingueza García
- 1 I. Villar Martínez
- 15 M. Vecino Falero
- 9 A. Adams
- 21 C. Ejuke
- 8 J. Jordán Moreno
- 15 F. Rodrigues Cardoso
- 6 N. Gudelj
- 22 F. Gattoni
- 1 O. Vlachodimos
- 11 R. Vargas
- 5 N. Kouassi
- 17 N. Maupay
- 31 A. Flores López
- 38 N. Guillén Peguero
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