La Liga
Celta de Vigo - Sevilla
05/23/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.3
2.3
1.0
1:1
15%0:0
12%1:0
11%2:0
9%2:1
9%What influences the xG?
Celta de Vigo
Sevilla
The Lab
- 1Sevilla with Alexis Sánchez: 3.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0.5 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Sevilla: scored only in H2 in 3 consecutive games (3 of 8 total)
- 3Sevilla: 4 wins in 5 games with xG above 1.0 (80% win rate)
- 4Celta de Vigo: 70% of xG value comes in the second half (last 8 games with xG data)
- 5Celta de Vigo: scored only after the break in 3 of 8 games
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
42%
Draw
31%
Away Win
26%
Goals
Over 1.5
69%
Under 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
41%
Under 2.5
59%
Over 3.5
20%
Under 3.5
80%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
74%
Away or Draw
58%
No Draw
69%
Both Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Key Factors
- League Position: Celta de Vigo is in 6th place, significantly ahead of Sevilla in 14th place
- Pipeline Prediction: The model calculates a home win for Celta de Vigo with a 43% probability
- Sevilla Defense: Sevilla concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away game
Risk Factors
- Reduced Goal Threat for Sevilla: Rubén Vargas, Neal Maupay, and Nemanja Gudelj are missing, only 94% of usual goal threat available
- Celta de Vigo Attack: Celta de Vigo averaged only 3.2 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Celta de Vigo (6th place, 51 points) host Sevilla (14th place, 43 points) at the Estadio de Balaídos
La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM
Celta de Vigo aims to consolidate their higher league position, while Sevilla fights to catch up in the midfield
Form
Celta de Vigo's current form across all competitions is LWWLD
This corresponds to 2 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses from the last 5 matches
Sevilla's form is LWWWL
This means 3 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses in their last 5 games
W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss
Celta de Vigo last drew 1-1 away against Athletic Club
Sevilla lost their last home match 0-1 against Real Madrid
Statistics
Celta de Vigo has averaged 1.41 goals scored per game and conceded 1.3 goals per game this season
Sevilla has scored 1.24 goals per game and conceded 1.59 goals per game
Celta de Vigo kept 9 clean sheets, Sevilla managed 6
Both teams scored in 24 Celta de Vigo matches and 22 Sevilla matches
Over 2.5 goals were scored in 17 Celta de Vigo matches and 21 Sevilla matches
At home, Celta de Vigo averages 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded
Away from home, Sevilla averages 1.22 goals scored and 1.89 goals conceded
The Estadio de Balaídos has seen an average of 4.6 total goals per game in the last 5 matches
In 4 of these 5 matches, both teams scored, and in all 5 matches, over 2.5 goals were scored
Head-to-Head
In the last 5 head-to-head encounters, Celta de Vigo recorded 3 wins
Sevilla won 1 match, and 1 game ended in a draw
The goal difference is 7:5 in favor of Celta de Vigo
The last meeting on January 12, 2026, ended in a 1-0 victory for Sevilla
Key Players
For Celta de Vigo, Borja Iglesias is a key offensive player with 14 goals and 2 assists in 34 season appearances
Williot Swedberg contributed 5 goals and 5 assists in 28 appearances and shows a rising form trend
Iago Aspas scored 5 goals and 3 assists in 31 season appearances
For Sevilla, Djibril Sow is a key player with 5 goals and 4 assists in 32 season appearances
Alexis Sánchez recorded 4 goals and 2 assists in 27 appearances
Oso is another important player with 2 goals and 3 assists in 20 season appearances
Goalkeepers
Ionuț Radu is Celta de Vigo's goalkeeper and has kept 9 clean sheets in 37 season appearances
For Sevilla, Ørjan Nyland is in goal, with 0 clean sheets in 4 season appearances
Influences
Celta de Vigo's home record shows 1.4 goals scored and 1.4 goals conceded per home game
Sevilla concedes an average of 1.89 goals per away game, while scoring 1.22 goals
The Estadio de Balaídos is known for high-scoring games with an average of 4.6 goals per match
In the last 5 matches at Estadio de Balaídos, over 2.5 goals were always scored