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La Liga

Mallorca - Real Oviedo

05/23/2026, 07:00 PM

3 : 0
Expected Goals
Mallorca
1.7
Total xG
3.0
Real Oviedo
1.3
Most Likely Scores

1:1

13%

2:1

9%

2:0

7%

1:2

7%

2:2

6%
What influences the xG?
MALRO

Mallorca

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match)
-0.14
Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average)
-0.14
Johan Mojica not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists)
Zito Luvumbo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists)

Real Oviedo

5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match)
-0.20
Declining form (0.2 vs 0.8 season average)
-0.18
Federico Viñas not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists)
Thiago Fernández on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists)
Haissem Hassan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists)
42% of goal output missing (only 59% available)
The Lab
Statistical patterns from recent matches
  • 1
    Real Oviedo with Rahim Alhassane: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 2
    Mallorca with Zito Luvumbo: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)

  • 3
    Mallorca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes

  • 4
    Mallorca: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 10)

Model Probabilities

Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

27%

Away Win

28%

Goals

Over 1.5

81%

Under 1.5

19%

Over 2.5

57%

Under 2.5

43%

Over 3.5

34%

Under 3.5

66%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

72%

Away or Draw

55%

No Draw

73%

Both Score

Yes

60%

No

40%

Key Factors
  • The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 45% probability
  • Mallorca is stronger at home offensively (1.17 goals per game) than Real Oviedo is defensively away (1.62 goals conceded)
  • Mallorca's slight form advantage (1 win in 5 games) compared to Real Oviedo's poor form (0 wins in 5 games)
Risk Factors
  • Real Oviedo will have only 59% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, with Federico Viñas (9 goals, 1 assist), Thiago Fernández (0 goals, 4 assists), and Haissem Hassan (0 goals, 3 assists) not available
  • Real Oviedo averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview

Mallorca (19th place, 39 points) host Real Oviedo (20th place, 29 points) at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix

La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM

Mallorca are fighting for survival, while Real Oviedo can hardly avoid relegation

Form

Mallorca's current form across all competitions is LWDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)

The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches

Their last game ended in a loss

Real Oviedo shows the form LLDLL across all competitions

The visitors achieved 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches

They suffered two consecutive losses recently

Statistics

Mallorca scores an average of 1.19 goals per game and concedes 1.54 goals

Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.70 goals per game and concedes 1.54 goals

Mallorca is stronger at home offensively with an average of 1.17 goals and defensively with 0.88 goals conceded

Real Oviedo scores 0.71 goals per away game and concedes 1.62 goals

At Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game

In 4 out of 5 games at this stadium, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

Head-to-Head

There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams

This match ended in a 0:0 draw on December 5, 2025

The goal difference is even with 0:0 goals

The head-to-head record indicates an even history

Key Players

Vedat Muriqi is Mallorca's top scorer with 22 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.2

Midfielder Samú Costa contributes 7 goals and 2 assists, his form is rising with an average rating of 7.22 in the last 5 games

Sergi Darder provided 1 goal and 5 assists with a season average rating of 6.99

Ilyas Chaira of Real Oviedo has 6 season goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.73

Midfielder Alberto Reina scored 4 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.79

Santi Cazorla, also a midfielder, has 1 assist with a rating of 6.78

Goalkeepers

Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo Román has achieved 5 clean sheets this season

Real Oviedo's goalkeeper Horațiu Moldovan has recorded 1 clean sheet so far

Influences

Mallorca shows greater strength at home, with an average of 1.17 goals scored and only 0.88 goals conceded per home game

Estadi Mallorca Son Moix is known for matches with an average of 2.6 total goals

In 4 of 5 games at this stadium, both teams scored, and 3 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals

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