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Mallorca – Real Oviedo3 : 0
Why the model thinks so
Mallorca
1.67
Total xG
2.95
Real Oviedo
1.29
Expected goals from our model, before kickoff
How the model gets there: each factor adds goals to or takes goals from one team's expected goals.
| Factor | Mallorca | Real Oviedo |
|---|---|---|
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.2 goals/match) | −0.20 | |
| Declining form (0.2 vs 0.8 season average) | −0.18 | |
| 5 of last 5 matches with 0-1 goals (0.8 goals/match) | −0.14 | |
| Declining form (0.8 vs 1.3 season average) | −0.14 | |
| Johan Mojica not in squad (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Zito Luvumbo on the bench (0 goals, 2 assists) | ||
| Federico Viñas not in squad (9 goals, 1 assists) | ||
| Thiago Fernández on the bench (0 goals, 4 assists) | ||
| Haissem Hassan on the bench (0 goals, 3 assists) | ||
| 42% of goal output missing (only 59% available) |
Key factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 45% probability
- Mallorca is stronger at home offensively (1.17 goals per game) than Real Oviedo is defensively away (1.62 goals conceded)
- Mallorca's slight form advantage (1 win in 5 games) compared to Real Oviedo's poor form (0 wins in 5 games)
Risks
- Real Oviedo will have only 59% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, with Federico Viñas (9 goals, 1 assist), Thiago Fernández (0 goals, 4 assists), and Haissem Hassan (0 goals, 3 assists) not available
- Real Oviedo averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
All probabilities
Result
Mallorca45%
Draw27%
Real Oviedo28%
Goals
Over 1.581%
Under 1.519%
Over 2.557%
Under 2.543%
Over 3.534%
Under 3.566%
Double chance
Mallorca or draw72%
Real Oviedo or draw55%
No draw73%
Both teams score
Yes60%
No40%
Most likely scores
1:1
13%
2:1
9%
2:0
7%
1:2
7%
2:2
6%
3:0
Final score
The Lab
Patterns our system found in the data.
- Real Oviedo with Rahim Alhassane: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Mallorca with Zito Luvumbo: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- Mallorca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- Mallorca: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 10)
Lineups
Mallorca 4-3-1-2 · Real Oviedo 4-2-3-1
Mallorca
- 1 L. Román Riquelme
- 23 P. Maffeo Becerra
- 24 M. Valjent
- 5 O. Mascarell González
- 3 A. Latorre Grueso
- 12 S. Costa
- 10 S. Darder Moll
- 8 M. Morlanes
- 20 P. Torre Carral
- 11 T. Asano
- 7 V. Muriqi
Real Oviedo
- 1 H. Moldovan
- 22 I. Vidal Miralles
- 2 E. Bailly
- 12 D. Calvo San Román
- 3 A. Alhassane Bonkan
- 11 S. Colombatto
- 23 N. Fonseca
- 7 I. Chaira
- 8 S. Cazorla González
- 5 A. Reina Campos
- 19 Á. Forés Mendoza
Substitutes
- 9 A. Prats Bastidas
- 17 J. Virgili Tenas
- 27 D. López Guijarro
- 19 J. Llabrés Exposito
- 2 M. Morey Bauzà
- 21 A. Raillo Arenas
- 6 A. Sánchez Navarro
- 25 I. Cuéllar Sacristán
- 34 J. Olaizola Jimenez
- 15 Z. Sebastiao Luvumbo
- 44 Miguel Calatayud García
- 29 L. Orejuela
- 13 A. Escandell Banacloche
- 24 L. Ahijado Quintana
- 16 D. Veiga Teixeira Carmo
- 25 J. López Carballo
- 17 T. Borbas
- 10 H. Hassan
- 21 L. Ilić
- 6 K. Sibo
- 4 D. Costas Cordal
- 15 T. Fernández
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