La Liga
Mallorca - Real Oviedo
05/23/2026, 07:00 PM
Expected Goals
1.7
3.0
1.3
1:1
13%2:1
9%2:0
7%1:2
7%2:2
6%What influences the xG?
Mallorca
Real Oviedo
The Lab
- 1Real Oviedo with Rahim Alhassane: 2.6 goals/90 min. Without: 0 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 2Mallorca with Zito Luvumbo: 1.9 goals/90 min. Without: 0.9 goals/90 min (6 of 8 games)
- 3Mallorca: 5 of 8 games without conceding in H1, but only 2 over 90 minutes
- 4Mallorca: 50% of all goals between minutes 31-45 (5 of 10)
Model Probabilities
Match Result
Home Win
45%
Draw
27%
Away Win
28%
Goals
Over 1.5
81%
Under 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
57%
Under 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
34%
Under 3.5
66%
Double Chance
Home or Draw
72%
Away or Draw
55%
No Draw
73%
Both Score
Yes
60%
No
40%
Key Factors
- The mathematical analysis predicts a home win with a 45% probability
- Mallorca is stronger at home offensively (1.17 goals per game) than Real Oviedo is defensively away (1.62 goals conceded)
- Mallorca's slight form advantage (1 win in 5 games) compared to Real Oviedo's poor form (0 wins in 5 games)
Risk Factors
- Real Oviedo will have only 59% of their usual starting XI's goal threat available, with Federico Viñas (9 goals, 1 assist), Thiago Fernández (0 goals, 4 assists), and Haissem Hassan (0 goals, 3 assists) not available
- Real Oviedo averaged only 2.6 shots on target in their last 5 games
Overview
Mallorca (19th place, 39 points) host Real Oviedo (20th place, 29 points) at Estadi Mallorca Son Moix
La Liga match on May 23, 2026, 9:00 PM
Mallorca are fighting for survival, while Real Oviedo can hardly avoid relegation
Form
Mallorca's current form across all competitions is LWDLL (W = Win, D = Draw, L = Loss)
The home team recorded 1 win, 1 draw, and 3 losses in their last 5 matches
Their last game ended in a loss
Real Oviedo shows the form LLDLL across all competitions
The visitors achieved 0 wins, 1 draw, and 4 losses in their last 5 matches
They suffered two consecutive losses recently
Statistics
Mallorca scores an average of 1.19 goals per game and concedes 1.54 goals
Real Oviedo scores an average of 0.70 goals per game and concedes 1.54 goals
Mallorca is stronger at home offensively with an average of 1.17 goals and defensively with 0.88 goals conceded
Real Oviedo scores 0.71 goals per away game and concedes 1.62 goals
At Estadi Mallorca Son Moix, an average of 2.6 goals are scored per game
In 4 out of 5 games at this stadium, both teams scored, and 3 out of 5 games had over 2.5 goals
Head-to-Head
There has been 1 head-to-head match between these two teams
This match ended in a 0:0 draw on December 5, 2025
The goal difference is even with 0:0 goals
The head-to-head record indicates an even history
Key Players
Vedat Muriqi is Mallorca's top scorer with 22 season goals and 1 assist with an average rating of 7.2
Midfielder Samú Costa contributes 7 goals and 2 assists, his form is rising with an average rating of 7.22 in the last 5 games
Sergi Darder provided 1 goal and 5 assists with a season average rating of 6.99
Ilyas Chaira of Real Oviedo has 6 season goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.73
Midfielder Alberto Reina scored 4 goals and 2 assists with a rating of 6.79
Santi Cazorla, also a midfielder, has 1 assist with a rating of 6.78
Goalkeepers
Mallorca's goalkeeper Leo Román has achieved 5 clean sheets this season
Real Oviedo's goalkeeper Horațiu Moldovan has recorded 1 clean sheet so far
Influences
Mallorca shows greater strength at home, with an average of 1.17 goals scored and only 0.88 goals conceded per home game
Estadi Mallorca Son Moix is known for matches with an average of 2.6 total goals
In 4 of 5 games at this stadium, both teams scored, and 3 of 5 games had over 2.5 goals