Hot Pick: when the edge is especially clear
New in the Match Center and on the match page: some opportunities carry a flame with “Hot Pick”. It means that this opportunity also passes a much stricter test in which the fair market price counts for more. On October 21, we described here how the opportunity has been created since then: we cautiously adjust our probability towards the fair market price, and even then an edge must remain at the odds. From today, a stricter test runs before this standard test.
- Stricter test the fair market price counts for much more; even then, an edge must remain
- Hot Pick if it holds and the selection also passes the standard test: the opportunity of the match, with a flame
- Otherwise the standard test the test since October 21: cautiously adjusted towards the market price, an edge must remain
- Opportunity at most 1 per match, as before, then without a flame
Limits for both tests: Pinnacle only, hard limits per market, not too far from the market, only with confirmed lineups
How a Hot Pick is created
From today, we first apply a stricter test to every match. As before, we adjust our probability towards the fair Pinnacle price, but we let the market price count for much more. If an edge still remains at the odds with this cautious probability, and the selection also passes the standard test, that is the opportunity of the match, and it carries the flame. If there are several candidates, the edge relative to the risk decides, as before: the most promising selection wins.
If no candidate passes the stricter test, the standard test from October 21 applies: our probability cautiously adjusted towards the market price, and even then an edge must remain. The opportunity is then created without a flame.
The other rules apply unchanged to both tests: Pinnacle only, only with confirmed lineups. Very low odds and selections that our model considers too uncertain are ruled out; the system sets the limits for each market. And if our assessment for a candidate that passes these limits differs too much from the market, we show no opportunity for the whole match. With differences that large, the market often knows something the data does not yet show.
This does not create more opportunities than before. A Hot Pick only appears in matches that also have an opportunity under the standard test, and it must pass that test's rules as well. One thing can change: in a match with a Hot Pick, the opportunity can be in a different market from the one the standard test alone would have chosen.
An example
FC Bayern München – Arsenal on October 21, as in the post about the new rules. Our model saw “Over 3.5 goals” at 45.7%, the fair Pinnacle price at 40.9%. At odds of 2.37, 42.2% would mean no edge at all. Under the standard test, an edge remained after the cautious adjustment towards the market price: it was enough for the opportunity. Under the stricter test, in which the market price counts for much more, none remained. It would have been a standard opportunity, not a Hot Pick.
- Our model 45.7 %
- Needed at odds of 2.37 with no edge 42.2 %
- Fair market price Pinnacle, without margin 40.9 %
Under the standard test an edge remained, under the stricter one it did not.
Where you see it
- Match Center: in the match row, as a badge with a flame.
- Match page: with the opportunity, along with a short explanation.
- Results archive: the flame on settled opportunities.
- Telegram: in the message about the final analysis and in the results message, in the schedule and in the live view.
- Email: with the opportunity in the final analysis notifications, both single and bundled.
- AI apps and partner API: Claude, ChatGPT and our partners receive the marker along with the opportunity.
Access is the same as for the opportunity: no access to the match, no Hot Pick.
In the Match Center, the Hot Pick appears with a flame in the opportunity badge.
On the match page, a short sentence explains what the flame means.
What a Hot Pick is not
A Hot Pick is not a second opportunity. It is the opportunity of the match, with a note: by our calculation, the gap to the fair market price is especially large. The flame says nothing more. A Hot Pick is not automatically more likely than another opportunity; it can have higher odds and therefore a lower probability. It is not a promise, and it can lose. Whether Hot Picks perform better than the other opportunities is not proven. For every opportunity, we record whether it was a Hot Pick, and we will only show numbers on this once they are robust.
Previews still show no opportunity and therefore no Hot Pick.
Hot Picks count in the same performance record as all opportunities. They are marked from today: no earlier opportunity becomes a Hot Pick retroactively. The rules step by step are in the help under What an opportunity is, and every opportunity and its outcome is in the performance record. Past results are no guarantee of future results.