Updates

1. Calculate probability for every market
2. Fair price Pinnacle, margin removed from the odds
3. Hard limits no very low odds, no selections that are too uncertain, set per market
4. Not too far from the market when the differences are large, the market often knows more
5. Clear edge an edge remains even after the cautious adjustment towards the market price
6. Opportunity at most one per match

No edge → no opportunity. That is an answer too.

1. Stricter test the fair market price counts for much more; even then, an edge must remain
2. Hot Pick if it holds and the selection also passes the standard test: the opportunity of the match, with a flame
3. Otherwise the standard test the test since October 21: cautiously adjusted towards the market price, an edge must remain
4. Opportunity at most 1 per match, as before, then without a flame

Limits for both tests: Pinnacle only, hard limits per market, not too far from the market, only with confirmed lineups

1. Fair price Pinnacle margin removed; no Pinnacle, no opportunity
2. Adjust our probability cautiously adjusted towards the fair market price
3. Clear edge even then, an edge must remain at the odds
4. Opportunity at most 1 the most promising selection: the best edge relative to the risk

Limits very low odds and selections that are too uncertain are ruled out, set per market; if our assessment is too far from the market, there is no opportunity

1. Players 11 + 11 confirmed starting XI, every player with his ratings
2. xG 1.05 : 1.33 expected goals per team
3. Probability 42.4% for “Over 2.5”
4. Market price 2.57 = 38.9% odds for “Over 2.5”, margin still included
5. Opportunity +9% Edge: 0.424 × 2.57 − 1

No edge → no opportunity. That is often how it ends.

AI only writes the text and does not calculate a single number

From the eleven players to the opportunity, using Belgrano – River Plate as the example.