New: a player model calculates the final analysis

Until now, our model estimated a team's strength from its matches and results. It did not know who was actually on the pitch. Since October 13, 2026, that has changed: in league and European competitions, the final analysis calculates with the ratings of the eleven players who actually start.

What the player model calculates

The final analysis is created shortly before kick-off, as soon as the lineups are official. From then on, it takes in:

• team strength, home advantage and the league's scoring level
• the ratings of every player in the starting XI from up to two years of club football, with recent matches counting more
• role and opponent: a striker is measured against strikers, and it matters against whom his numbers were produced
• form in recent appearances and workload: rest days, minutes played, returning players
• the opposing goalkeeper

What comes out is the same as before: expected goals (xG) for both teams, and from them the probabilities for win, draw, double chance, over/under and “both teams score”, as well as the most likely scores. DumbleScore calculates the numbers; an AI only summarises them in your language and does not calculate a single number.

The confirmed lineups: the final analysis calculates with these eleven players per team.

What stays the same

Only the calculation of the expected goals is new. Everything after it runs unchanged: we compare our probabilities with the fair market price without margin, the edge must be large enough (the higher the odds, the larger), the filters remain, and there is at most one opportunity per match.

The performance record also continues without a break: until October 13 with the previous model, since then with the player model in league and European competitions, all in the same performance record. As before, only opportunities from final analyses count, and nothing is changed after kick-off.

Where it does not apply (yet)

• Cup matches and internationals are still calculated with team values.
• If a complete lineup is missing (not exactly eleven starters per team), the final analysis also calculates with team values.
• In European competitions, the player model only applies if both teams have played enough league matches in the last twelve months; otherwise, team values are used.

Nothing changes for you on the analysis page. For now, the Preview still calculates with team values.

What the player model does better

The players' ratings say more about a team than its results alone. This is especially true for teams in transition, after transfers and at the start of the season: the player model knows new players from their previous clubs.

It is still too early to judge the first final analyses. You will find the current state in the performance record. Past results are no guarantee of future results.