New: our model next to the market
A probability on its own says little. It gets interesting in comparison: does our model see an outcome as more likely than the market, or less likely? From today, we show this comparison right next to our numbers, on the match page and in the Match Center.
- Our model above the market
- +6 points
- green, ▲ in the Match Center: by our calculation, an edge over the fair market price
- Our model below the market
- −4 points
- red, ▼ in the Match Center: the market sees the outcome as more likely than we do
- Selections
- 14
- 1X2, double chance, over/under, “both teams score”
- Providers to choose from
- 6
- or their average
- Marked from
- 5 points
- deviation in the Match Center
On the match page
The “All probabilities” card shows three values for each selection: Model, Market and Diff., the deviation in percentage points. The bar shows our model, and a line on it shows the market. Green means: our model sees this outcome as more likely than the market. This applies to all 14 selections, in the Preview as well as in the final analysis. After kick-off, the market stays as it was at kick-off.
The “All probabilities” card: our model, the market and the deviation.
How the market figure is built
Every set of odds contains the provider's margin. We remove it for each provider and so get fair probabilities. The default is the average of at least two providers, each counting equally. Under “Compare” you can choose a single provider instead: Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet, Sporttip, Kalshi or Polymarket. If you are signed in, we remember your choice in your account; otherwise in your browser.
In the Match Center
Below every 1X2 box, the market is now shown as a percentage, for example “M 54%”. If the selected source is missing for a match, “Ø 54%” stands for the average. If our model differs from the market by 5 percentage points or more on an outcome, that outcome is marked: ▲ if our model sees it as more likely, ▼ if less likely.
Who sees what
- Everyone sees the market in the Match Center. Without signing in, it is always the average.
- On the match page, you see all markets if you have access to the match, otherwise only 1X2.
A deviation is not yet an opportunity
Whether a deviation becomes an opportunity is decided by the selection under its own rules, measured against the fair price from Pinnacle (or from Bet365 if Pinnacle's odds are missing). And a large deviation often also means that the market knows something our calculation is missing. The comparison shows you where we calculate differently from the market.
You will find all matches with the new comparison in the Match Center.