New: the xG score before the match

Until now, before a match you saw the raw xG values and a list of likely scores. We only assessed a rounded score after the final whistle, even though it had not been visible beforehand. Now the order is right: show first, then check.

Where you find it

Every final analysis (with confirmed lineups) shows the xG score card before the match: a large tile with the probability of exactly this score, and below it the other likely scores. In the quick view it reads “xG 1.62:1.19 → 1:1”, and in the Match Center list each team has a dashed box (“1.62 → 1”), clearly marked as a forecast. The Preview has no xG score.

The “xG score” card with the other likely scores.

How it is rounded

Cautiously: rounded down, and rounded up only from .9. 1.62 becomes 1, 1.90 becomes 2. Example Leverkusen – Freiburg: xG 2.33 : 1.19 gives 2:1. This rule often leads to 1:1.

Who sees the xG score

Before the match and up to minute 60, you see the xG score if you have access to the match; without access it is blurred. From minute 61 and after the final whistle, everyone sees it.

After the final whistle: checked openly

We compare the xG score with the score after 90 minutes (extra time and penalty shoot-outs do not count) and show the outcome openly: “Exact score”, “Right tendency” or “Missed”, plus whether each team was at most 1 goal off. An exact score is rare. Our model says so itself: the probability of exactly the xG score is on the card, and it is usually small.

The xG score is a forecast, not an opportunity: it says nothing about whether the odds are worth it. Past results are no guarantee.