New rules for opportunities
Since last night, we have been choosing the opportunity under new rules. Here is what is changing and what it means for you.
- Fair price Pinnacle margin removed; no Pinnacle, no opportunity
- Adjust our probability cautiously adjusted towards the fair market price
- Clear edge even then, an edge must remain at the odds
- Opportunity at most 1 the most promising selection: the best edge relative to the risk
Limits very low odds and selections that are too uncertain are ruled out, set per market; if our assessment is too far from the market, there is no opportunity
What is changing
- Pinnacle only: we now calculate the fair market price only from the odds of Pinnacle. If they are missing, there is no opportunity. Bet365 no longer steps in.
- Cautiously adjusted towards the market: we cautiously adjust our probability towards the fair market price. Even calculated this way, an edge must remain at the odds.
- The most promising selection wins: if several candidates remain, we take the selection with the best edge relative to the risk. There is still at most one opportunity per match.
- What stays: very low odds and selections that our model considers too uncertain are ruled out; the system sets the limits for each market. And if our assessment for the best candidate in a match differs too much from the market, we show no opportunity for that match. With differences that large, the market often knows something the data does not yet show.
An example from this evening
FC Bayern München – Arsenal, Champions League. Our model saw “Over 3.5 goals” at 45.7%, the fair Pinnacle price at 40.9%. At odds of 2.37, 42.2% would mean no edge at all. Even after the cautious adjustment towards the market price, an edge remained by our calculation: an opportunity. The match page shows +8.2% as the edge: there we calculate, as before, with our model alone.
- Our model 45.7 %
- Needed at odds of 2.37 with no edge 42.2 %
- Fair market price Pinnacle, without margin 40.9 %
Our model is above the minimum that the odds require. After the cautious adjustment towards the market price, an edge remained by our calculation.
The opportunity on the match page, with the providers' odds.
- xG final analysis
- 2.01 : 1.46 → 2:1
- xG after the match
- 2.25 : 1.92
- 35' Alphonso Davies
- 61' Harry Kane (penalty)
- 25' Eberechi Eze
- 82' Declan Rice
What we know and what we do not
Whether the new rule performs better than the old one is not proven. We will only show numbers on this once they are robust. The edge is a value calculated by our model, not a guaranteed return. What changes is the reasoning behind every opportunity: it must still have an edge when we cautiously adjust our assessment towards the market.
What this means for you
All opportunities stay in the same performance record. Nothing is recalculated retroactively: every opportunity stays as it is, under the rule that produced it. Previews still never show an opportunity.
Also from today, cup and European matches count in the performance record even if a team comes from a league that we do not cover but for which we have data, for example from Belgium, Austria or Scotland. This applies to all new analyses. Teams from leagues in trial mode remain excluded.
The rules step by step are in the help under What an opportunity is, and every opportunity and its outcome is in the performance record. Past results are no guarantee of future results.