New: impacts before and during the match
About two days pass between the Preview and kick-off. A lot can happen in that time: a striker gets injured in training, a midfielder is rested. Since last night, we have been showing this as an impact, and from today during the match as well.
Before kick-off
An impact is created when a regular from the starting XI of our Preview is newly missing. Regular means: in recent months he has usually been in the starting XI in league matches, with recent matches counting more. For this, we check every hour for all matches with a Preview in the next two days, and every five minutes once the lineups are confirmed.
We show significant absences: players whose absence noticeably weakens the team in the model or, where this cannot be calculated, who are among the team's highest-rated players.
Every impact names the player and his numbers: how often he started recently, appearances, goals and assists this season, his rating within the team and in the league. With access to the match, you also see who replaces him according to our model and what that means for the expected goals of both teams.
An impact before kick-off: who is missing, why he matters and who replaces him.
Once the lineup is set, the impact is confirmed, for example with “Confirmed: he is not in the squad.” If the player reappears in the starting XI, the impact disappears. At kick-off it is hidden; from then on, the final analysis calculates with the confirmed lineup.
An example from yesterday
FC Bayern München – Arsenal, Champions League. Just under four hours before kick-off, the check reported two impacts. At that point only we could see them, a few hours before they were released for everyone.
- Joshua Kimmich is missing. A regular in defensive midfield, in the starting XI in 7 of the last 10 league matches, ranked 1st of 97 midfielders in the Bundesliga. Confirmed: he was not in the squad.
- Bukayo Saka is missing. He was not in Arsenal's expected starting XI. When he reappeared in the provisional lineup, the impact disappeared, and Saka started the match.
That is part of it too: an impact is a report before the lineup, not a certainty.
- xG final analysis
- 2.01 : 1.46 → 2:1
- xG after the match
- 2.25 : 1.92
- 35' Alphonso Davies
- 61' Harry Kane (penalty)
- 25' Eberechi Eze
- 82' Declan Rice
During the match
From today, the “In-game impacts” card shows what changes on the pitch: red cards and second yellows, substitutions of key players as “X for Y”, and every substitution due to injury. With the first sending-off, the direction is shown too: “Down a man: goal threat falls, the opponent's rises.” You will find the card in the Match Center and on the match page in the Live tab.
The “In-game impacts” card: a substitution due to injury, with the minute.
So the reasons why the live number “Probability of another goal” moves are now in this card. When the card covers all the reasons, the live number itself only shows the percentages.
Who sees what
- Without signing in: how many impacts there are.
- Signed in: who is missing and why it matters.
- With access to the match: also the replacement and the effect on the expected goals. You only see the in-game impacts with access to the match, even after minute 60.
What an impact is not
An impact changes neither the opportunity nor the performance record nor the text of the analysis. Before the match, it reports a regular who is newly missing; during the match, it shows what changes the situation on the pitch.
Also new: the “Biggest deviation” box
In the Match Center, the “Biggest deviation” box now sits to the right of the 1X2 box. It shows the selection where our model is furthest above the market, across all markets. That is not automatically our opportunity: when the deviation is large, the market often knows more. The tooltip tells you whether the box is showing our opportunity.
In the Match Center, to the right of the 1X2: the biggest deviation of the match.