Our own starting XI: Previews with the player model
Until now, the Preview had a gap: it did not know the players. Since October 13, the final analysis in league and European competitions has calculated with the eleven players who actually start. But the Preview is created before anyone knows the lineup. That is why, since October 15, 2026, we have been predicting the starting XI ourselves and letting the same player model calculate on it, in league and European competitions.
Up to two days before, after the last match
The Preview is created two days before kick-off at the earliest, and only once both teams have played their previous match, whatever the competition. A midweek round, a cup match, a European match: by then it has been played and its data loaded, at the earliest the day after. If a match is added at short notice, the Preview is created no later than 24 hours before kick-off.
How we predict the starting XI
The starting point is the XI from the last league match, with their positions. Then a few rules apply:
- Suspended players out: a red card or a suspension for yellow cards under the rules of the league in question, unless the schedule shows the suspension has already been served.
- Returning players in: anyone who was missing in the last league match but has since played again in a cup or European match comes back.
- Swap by start rate: anyone who only played briefly in the last match or has since played in a cup or European match can be replaced by a player who starts more often, based on starts and minutes played.
- Filling gaps: if someone is missing, the player who has most often played exactly this position in the last ten matches takes over. Goalkeepers only in goal.
In European competitions, the basis is the XI from the last match, whatever the competition; injured and suspended players on the list of absentees drop out. In the league, the list of absentees only decides who cannot come in as a replacement. It does not take out a regular: in our data, regulars reported as absent usually played anyway.
What the player model does with it
On this XI, the same player model calculates as in the final analysis: the ratings of every player, role and opponent, form in recent appearances and workload (rest days, minutes played, returning players), and the opposing goalkeeper. What comes out are expected goals (xG) and the probabilities for all markets.
A Preview: probabilities and expected goals; the opportunity only comes with the final analysis.
Limits of the forecast
A forecast of the starting XI never gets all eleven right. Rotation, tactics and late absences are coaching decisions that nobody knows in advance. That is why the Preview remains a first assessment.
What changes for you and what does not
The Preview remains a first assessment: probabilities and xG, but no opportunity. Shortly before kick-off, as soon as the lineup is confirmed, the final analysis recalculates, and only its opportunities count in the performance record. You do not see the predicted XI itself on the match page; it is a calculation step.
We do not yet know whether the Preview with its own starting XI comes closer to the final analysis and the result.