New: live probability of another goal

Will there be another goal? Anyone following a match live asks that question. Now there is a number for it, for each team.

What the number says

While a match is in progress, we show for each team how likely it is to score at least one more goal before the end of regular time. 60% means: in comparable situations, the team still scored in about 60 out of 100 matches, and in about 40 it did not. The two values are separate estimates and do not add up to 100%. The number is deliberately calculated on the cautious side. There is no number during extra time and penalty shoot-outs; at half-time it pauses.

What moves it

The starting point is our assessment before the match, the xG of the final analysis. After that, the minute, the score, red cards, added time and substitutions come in. The match page always shows the reason, such as the red card with the player's name or a substitution “X for Y”, with an arrow showing whether the goal threat rises or falls. To be honest: a single substitution usually moves the number only a little.

The live number on the match page, for each team.

Where and for whom

You will find the number in the Match Center list (the “+1?” box), in the quick view and on the match page in the Live tab, where it comes with the explanation “What does the number mean?”. It is only available on the website, and only if you have unlocked the match or it is in your plan. The release for everyone from minute 61 does not apply to this number.

In the Match Center, the number is in the “+1?” box.

The number is an estimate, not an opportunity, and not a guarantee.

The explanation “What does the number mean?” sits right next to the number on the match page.