New: the Preview Opportunity

New in the Matchcenter and on the match page: a dashed badge. It shows the Preview Opportunity, the Opportunity from our Preview, up to two days before kick-off. Previously, an Opportunity was only available with the final analysis, around 60 minutes before kick-off. Starting today, you can see right in the Preview which selection passes our rules, and during the final analysis, what happens to it: confirmed, changed or reassessed.

How the Preview Opportunity is created

The Preview calculates with the expected lineup. The expected goals for both teams determine the probabilities for all markets, and then the same check applies as in the final analysis: our probability against the fair Pinnacle odds, the strict thresholds per market, the cautious comparison with the market price, at most one Opportunity per match. If a selection passes all rules, it is the Preview Opportunity. It can also be a Hot Opportunity.

A Preview Opportunity arrives earlier, not with more certainty. The expected lineup can differ from the confirmed one, and odds move until kick-off. That is why the final analysis recalculates everything, with the eleven players each who actually play.

What the final analysis makes of it

• Confirmed: The final analysis chooses the same selection. It is now the Opportunity of the final analysis, with its odds. In the Opportunity box, the odds for the Preview and the final analysis stand side by side.

• Changed: The final analysis chooses a different selection. From now on, it is the Opportunity of the match. The previous Preview Opportunity remains visible in its own block with its Pinnacle odds.

• Reassessed: With the confirmed lineup, the final analysis sees no edge at the current price. The match then has no Opportunity; the badge says "No edge" with the note "Preview reassessed". The Preview Opportunity remains visible in its own block with its odds and its CLV.

If the Preview had no Opportunity, it remains "Opportunity Check" as before. The final analysis can still find one.

The CLV

There is now an arrow with a percentage next to every Opportunity, in the Matchcenter badge and on the match page under the odds table: the CLV, Closing Line Value. It compares the Pinnacle odds with which we showed the Opportunity against the latest Pinnacle odds; from kick-off onwards against the closing odds. Example: shown at odds of 2.10, now 2.00. 2.10 divided by 2.00 equals 1.05, the CLV is +5 %. ▲ green means: the odds have dropped since, the market now considers the outcome more likely than at the time of the analysis. ▼ red means: the odds have risen. We calculate the raw CLV directly from both odds, without removing the margin.

For a Preview Opportunity, the baseline is the Preview odds as long as the Opportunity comes from the Preview; for a changed Opportunity, it is the odds at the final analysis. We capture odds roughly every two hours, and more frequently in the final hour before kick-off.

The CLV says nothing about the outcome. An Opportunity with a positive CLV can lose, one with a negative CLV can win, and a single match says little. For a reassessed Preview Opportunity, it only shows how the price has moved since the Preview, not whether an edge still exists at the current price.

Where you can see it

• Matchcenter: dashed badge with selection, Preview odds and CLV, on mobile with a "P" in front. Hovering over it (on mobile: tapping) opens a box with the odds, status and CLV. The legend explains the two badges: solid for the Opportunity from the final analysis, dashed for the Preview Opportunity.

• Match page: the Opportunity box titled "Preview Opportunity": model probability, "Playable from", Preview odds and your providers' odds at the time of the Preview and the latest status. After the final analysis, the odds for the Preview, the final analysis and at kick-off stand side by side, each column checked against "Playable from" of its respective analysis, with the CLV underneath.

• Notifications (Alchemist): under My Account, Notifications, new option "Notify Preview Opportunity". The notification is sent immediately when the Preview is ready, even at night; only with Opportunity or for all Previews; for all matches, selected leagues and teams or a preset. What the final analysis decided, you will find out as a line in its notification or as a separate message.

• Watchlist: "Add to Watchlist" also works with an open Preview Opportunity, with the Preview odds.

• Claude and ChatGPT: state the Preview Opportunity along with its status.

Access is the same as for the Opportunity from the final analysis: anyone who can view the match can see the Preview Opportunity. Preview and final analysis together cost one spot of your free allowance.

What the Preview Opportunity is not

It is not a second Opportunity. There is still at most one per match; the Preview Opportunity is the same check, just earlier, and the final analysis decides whether it stays. It is not a promise: even a confirmed Preview Opportunity can lose. And it does not count in the Performance evaluation. There, only Opportunities from the final analysis with confirmed lineups continue to count; a confirmed Preview Opportunity counts as an Opportunity from the final analysis with its odds. Whether the earlier odds make a difference over many matches is not proven.

Everything else can be found in Help: The Preview Opportunity and CLV. Past results are no guarantee of future performance.