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For every match in the covered competitions, DumbleScore calculates its own probabilities and shows you where the odds are higher than they should be according to our calculation. The basis is data, not opinions: the strength of both teams and the ratings of the players who actually take the field. Every opportunity from a final analysis is listed with its outcome in the public performance record, even when it fails.

Every match goes through the same steps:

Preview. The preview is created up to two days before kick-off, as soon as both teams have played their previous match, and at the latest 24 hours before kick-off. It calculates with the expected lineup and shows the probabilities of all markets, but never an opportunity. More in From the preview to the final analysis.

Final analysis. Lineups are only confirmed shortly before kick-off. As soon as they are in, the model recalculates with the eleven players on each side who actually play and fetches the current odds. On average, the final analysis is ready around 60 minutes before kick-off. The opportunity box on the match page shows whether you are looking at a preview or the final analysis, and roughly when the final analysis is due.

Edge check. Right after the final analysis, we compare our probabilities with the fair odds from Pinnacle. If a selection is clearly above them and passes all the rules, it becomes the opportunity of the match. For most matches, the opportunity box shows No edge. How we select is explained in What an opportunity is.

Live. During the match, the Live tab shows the timeline, the statistics, the commentary and the momentum. On top of that come the in-game impacts and the probability of another goal.

Review. After full time, we compare the xG score with the score after 90 minutes and recalculate from the chances created in the match how well the outcome matched the opportunity. If there was an opportunity, it is now listed with its outcome in the performance record. More in After the match: Review.

Every analysis starts with the expected goals (xG) of both teams, for example 1.62 to 1.19. Everything else follows from that.

What goes in

In league and European competitions, the final analysis calculates with the eleven players of each confirmed starting XI:

• Team strength, home advantage and the goal level of the league.

• The ratings of every player in the starting XI from up to two years of club football; more recent matches count for more.

• Role and opponents: a striker is measured against strikers, and it matters against whom his ratings were earned.

• Form in recent appearances and workload: rest days, minutes played, returning players.

• The opposing goalkeeper.

Cup matches, international matches and matches without a complete lineup are calculated with team ratings. The preview calculates the same way as the final analysis, but with the expected lineup instead of the confirmed one.

From xG to probabilities

From the xG of both teams, the model calculates how likely each individual score is, from 0-0 up to high scores. It uses a statistical distribution that describes how often 0, 1, 2 or more goals fall at a given average, with a correction for tight scores such as 0-0 and 1-1. Adding up the matching scores gives the probabilities for win and draw (1X2), double chance, over/under and both teams score.

What comes out

• The expected goals (xG) for both teams. On the match page, the section Why the model thinks so shows which factors contributed.

• The probabilities for all markets, on the match page in the section All probabilities.

• The xG score and the most likely scores.

What xG means exactly is explained in the glossary under xG. How to read these sections on the match page is in Reading an analysis. What the AI does in all this is in What the AI does and does not do.

An opportunity is a question of price, not of the exact score. We compare our probability with the fair odds from Pinnacle at the time of the analysis, that is, without margin. The edge is our probability times the odds minus 1. Example: 42.4% at odds of 2.57 gives around +9%.

When an opportunity is created

An opportunity is only created in the final analysis and only under fixed rules:

1. Only with Pinnacle odds. Without fresh odds from Pinnacle, there is no opportunity.

2. Markets: The model rates the markets 1X2, double chance, over/under and both teams score. From these, it selects at most one opportunity per match.

3. Hard limits: Very low odds and selections that our model considers too uncertain are ruled out. The system sets the limits per market.

4. Too far from the market: If our assessment differs too much from the market, we pass on an opportunity. With differences that large, the market often knows something that is still missing from the data.

5. Clear edge: Even when we cautiously blend our assessment with the market price, an edge must remain.

6. At most one opportunity per match. If several selections pass all the rules, we take the most promising one: the one with the best edge in relation to the risk.

If no selection meets these rules, the opportunity box for the match shows No edge. That is the case for most matches, and it is intended.

Hot Pick

Before the normal check, a much stricter check runs in which the market price counts for more. If an edge remains even then, and the selection also passes the normal check, it is the opportunity of the match and a Hot Pick: an especially clear edge. Hot Picks are marked with a flame in the Match Center and in the opportunity box. They count in the performance record like any other opportunity.

What an opportunity is not

An opportunity is not a forecast of the score. The xG score can be off and the opportunity can still win, or the other way round. And an opportunity is not a certainty: even well-founded opportunities regularly fail. More in Risks and limits.

The performance record is public and visible without an account. It counts like this:

• Final analyses only. Only opportunities from final analyses with confirmed lineups count. Previews never count.

• One unit per opportunity at the Pinnacle odds at the time of the analysis. A won opportunity brings the odds minus 1 unit, a lost one costs 1 unit. Neither the best odds on the market nor the closing odds count.

• Settled opportunities only. Void opportunities (match cancelled or postponed) and open opportunities stay out.

• Nothing is changed. After kick-off, nothing about an opportunity changes any more. Losses stay, nothing is deleted. Leagues we no longer cover remain in the record.

• Fewer than 30 opportunities are not statistically meaningful. The record marks them as a small sample.

Which matches do not count

New competitions first run in trial mode and only count once we trust them enough. They are marked with a test-tube icon in the Match Center. In cup and European matches, a match does not count if at least one team plays in a league that is not evaluated. You still see the analyses and opportunities of these matches; they just do not flow into the record.

What ROI and unit mean is in the glossary under ROI and Unit. How to filter the record by league, market and period is in Checking the performance record.

No, with us the AI does not calculate the forecasts. All numbers come from our statistical model: the xG, the probabilities, the xG score, the edge, the opportunity and the performance record.

An AI only handles text: it summarises the most important key factors and risks of an analysis in your language and translates. If a number in the text and a number in the analysis contradict each other, the analysis is right.

The same applies when you use DumbleScore in Claude or ChatGPT: the AI reads our calculated values and passes them on. If it calculates something from them itself, such as an average over several matches, it can be wrong; more in Asking the AI.

DumbleScore analyses more than 20 competitions: the big European leagues, further leagues in Europe and the Americas, the Champions League, the Europa League and the Conference League, plus selected cups. Which competitions are currently included is shown in the Match Center under the Leagues filter and under Data.

Some competitions run in trial mode: they are analysed, marked with a test-tube icon in the Match Center, and do not count in the performance record.

Why some matches have no analysis

• Analyses only exist for matches from the covered competitions.

• In cup matches, we only analyse when both teams come from a covered league, because we lack the data for the other teams.

• The final analysis only appears once the lineups are official, on average around 60 minutes before kick-off. Before that, you see the preview.

If a covered match still has no analysis at all shortly before kick-off, contact support with the match and the time.

No guarantee. DumbleScore calculates probabilities. An opportunity with a 45% probability fails in roughly 55 out of 100 cases, even when the price is right. That is why every opportunity from a final analysis is listed with its outcome in the public performance record, lost opportunities included.

Swings are part of it. Individual days, weeks and months can end clearly in the red, even when the model is ahead over many matches. A single match says little about an assessment; only the record over many matches is meaningful. We mark fewer than 30 opportunities as a small sample.

The past is not the future. Past results are no guarantee of future ones. Odds move until kick-off, and the odds at your provider can be below the ones we calculated with. How to recognise that is in Playable from.

You decide. DumbleScore shows the probability, the odds and the edge. What you do with that is up to you. The analyses are for information. Act responsibly.

You need an account to open analyses before kick-off. It is free, and no credit card is needed.

1. Click Sign in at the top right.

2. Choose a method:

   • Send Magic Link: enter your email address. You receive a login link by email; there is no password. Check your spam folder too.

   • Sign in with Google

   • Sign in with Telegram

3. The first time, you accept the terms and the privacy policy. Your account is then created.

Several sign-in methods

Under My Account, you link email, Google and Telegram to the same account and can then sign in with any of them. For Telegram, click Sign in with Telegram; for Google, click Connect; for email, enter the address and confirm the verification email.

If a method already belongs to another DumbleScore account, the page shows Existing Account Found and offers to merge the accounts. All data is transferred to your account and the other account is deleted. This cannot be undone.

More about Telegram, for example for notifications, in Is DumbleScore on Telegram?

The free account

With a free account, you open three matches per week with the full analysis and opportunity, in all competitions.

• One slot covers the whole match. Preview and final analysis together count as one match. A match you have opened stays open for you, even past the start of the next week.

• New slots arrive every Saturday at 12:45 UTC, shortly before the first final analyses of the weekend. Unused slots expire.

• Always open, without a slot and even without an account: matches in progress from minute 61 and finished matches.

• The Match Center, the tables, the team and player data and the performance record are free for everyone.

The plans at a glance

A plan lifts the limit of three matches per week, entirely or for your leagues. All plans run monthly and can be cancelled at any time.

• Scout: all league matches in two leagues of your choice with opportunity, impacts, Live and Review, plus scenarios and watchlist. Outside your two leagues, you open three matches per week as with the free account, with the reset on Saturday at 12:45 UTC.

• Oracle: all leagues, cups and European competitions, plus scenarios and watchlist.

• Alchemist: everything in Oracle, plus, under Signals, the Outliers and Arbitrage tabs, and notifications for new final analyses and opportunities.

Every plan also applies in Claude and ChatGPT. The details are in Scout, Oracle, Alchemist, the prices for your country under Pricing.

Language and appearance

Click the language icon at the top right (for example EN). There you choose your language under Language (German, English, French, Spanish, Italian or Portuguese) and between Light and Dark under Appearance. The language also applies to the analysis texts, the emails and Telegram.

Favourite team

On every team page and in the header of every match page, each team has a heart. Click it to Mark as favourite team. The heart for that team is then filled, on the team page as well as on the match page. In the Match Center, the matches of your favourite teams always sit at the top and carry a filled heart with the note Match of one of your favourite teams. A second click on the heart removes the team from your favourites again.

Odds providers

You choose which providers you see with an opportunity and in which order:

1. Open My Account via your profile picture at the top right.

2. Click Odds providers.

3. Switch providers on or off and order them with the arrows. Available are Pinnacle, Bet365, 1xBet, Sporttip, Kalshi and Polymarket.

4. Click Save.

The selection applies everywhere: on the match page, in emails, on Telegram and in Claude and ChatGPT. The opportunity itself and Playable from do not change as a result; we always calculate with Pinnacle. You can also open the same window via the cogwheel next to Providers in the opportunity box.

Further settings in My Account

• Region: determines the currency when buying a plan.

• Notifications: messages about new analyses and opportunities. How to set them up is in Notifications by email and Telegram.

• Claude & ChatGPT: the connection to AI apps. How to set it up is in Connecting Claude and ChatGPT.

• Your leagues (Scout plan only): the two chosen leagues, changeable once a month.

The Match Center is the entry point to every match.

Narrowing down

• Day: At the top, you choose Yesterday, Today, Tomorrow or a date with Choose a day. Next 7 days shows the whole week.

• Search: With Search team or league, you search all upcoming matches; the filters for day, leagues and opportunities do not apply here.

• Leagues: The Leagues filter shows only the chosen competitions. Reset clears the selection.

• Only matches with an opportunity hides all matches without an opportunity.

• You sort upcoming matches with By time or By league. Matches of your favourite teams always sit at the top and carry a filled heart.

The list is divided into Live, Upcoming and Finished. Past matches are in the Results archive.

What a row shows

• The kick-off time or the match minute, the teams and the score.

• Three boxes with our 1X2 probabilities for home win, draw and away win; below them in grey the same values from the market odds, with the margin removed.

• The Biggest deviation box: where our model is furthest above the market.

• The Impacts box, when a regular has been missing since the preview or something has happened in the match. More in Absences and impacts.

• The status of the opportunity as a badge: Edge check around … as long as only the preview is there, then the selection with odds, No edge, or Locked if you have not opened the match. During the match, the colour shows whether the opportunity is winning or losing, afterwards won or lost. Hot Picks are marked with a flame and the whole row is tinted.

• With a final analysis, additionally the xG score. During the match, this is where the probability of another goal appears, in the row as +1?, and after full time the xG review from the Review.

• A test-tube icon means trial mode: the match does not count in the performance record.

The legend below the list explains the colours. A click on the row opens the quick view of the match in a window; Open match page leads to the full match page with the tabs Analysis, Live (after full time Match) and Review.

In the Match Center, the Biggest deviation box sits to the right of the 1X2 boxes. Across all markets, it shows the selection where our probability is furthest above the market's, as a difference in percentage points, for example "+7 points".

When you hover or tap, you see Model and Market as percentages, the Fair odds market and the Fair odds model, as well as the odds of the chosen comparison source. Very unlikely outcomes and very low fair odds are left out.

Important:

• The deviation is not automatically our opportunity. We choose the opportunity using further rules; if the box shows the same selection, it says so ("This is also our opportunity.").

• When the deviation is large, the market often knows more. Very large deviations are more likely a sign of information missing from the model than of an edge.

• A P means preview figures, without confirmed lineups yet. The final analysis may change this.

• You see the box with access to the match. How to get access is in What is free and which plans there are.

The Analysis tab on the match page shows you what the model calculated for this match. On the right (at the top on a phone) is the opportunity box.

• In one sentence: the analysis in a single sentence, formed from the model's numbers.

• Impacts (before kick-off only, if any): regulars missing since the preview. More in Absences and impacts.

• Why the model thinks so: the expected goals (xG) of both teams and the total xG, below them the factors that add expected goals to a team or take them away.

• xG score (final analysis only): the xG of both teams rounded to a score, with its probability and further likely scores. In the preview, this is where the Most likely scores appear. More in the glossary under xG score.

• Key factors and Risks: the most important points for and against the assessment, summarised in your language.

• All probabilities: the groups Result (1X2), Double chance, Goals (over/under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5) and Both teams score. With Compare, you set our values against the market, as the average of your providers or a single provider, with the margin removed. The Diff. column shows our model minus the market in percentage points; green means our model sees it as more likely.

• Team comparison: goals, goals conceded, xG per match and more, this season, before this match.

• Last 5 matches of both teams with opponent, score, possession, xG, big chances and shots.

• The Lab: statistical patterns our system found in the recent matches.

• Lineups with formation, starting XI and bench; in the final analysis with the Confirmed label.

• Injuries: injuries and suspensions with expected return and the season figures of the missing players.

• Top players, Head to head and Conditions (pitch, weather, goals per match in this stadium).

Without access to the match, you see only a selection of the data. You open everything else with one of your free matches or a plan; how that works is in What is free and which plans there are.

The opportunity box sits on every match page to the right of the analysis, at the top on a phone. It sums up what the model recommends for this match and which odds it calculated with.

From top to bottom

1. Status of the analysis: Preview · final analysis around … or Final analysis · Lineups confirmed.

2. The selection as a badge, for example "Over 2.5" or "Arsenal or draw". If it says No edge, the model found no opportunity in this match. As long as only the preview is there, it says Edge check: the check runs as soon as the lineups are confirmed. During the match, the colour shows whether the opportunity is ahead; after full time it shows ✓ or ✕.

3. Model probability: our probability for this selection.

4. Edge: our probability times the Pinnacle odds minus 1. More in the glossary under Edge.

5. Playable from: the lowest odds at which the opportunity is not yet in the red according to our calculation. How to use the value is in Playable from.

6. Hot Pick: With a Hot Pick, the frame is orange, and a note with a flame explains that the opportunity also passes a much stricter check. The rules are in What an opportunity is.

7. Providers: the odds of your providers in two columns. At analysis shows the odds the analysis calculated with; the odds of the opportunity are framed. Green with ✓ means the odds were above "Playable from"; red with ✕ means they were below. At kick-off appears from kick-off and shows, for comparison, the odds shortly before the start, in neutral colour. Via the cogwheel, you choose which providers you see. On a phone, the odds are collapsed: Provider odds (n).

8. Add to watchlist (with a plan, until the end of the match): saves the opportunity to the watchlist.

9. Analysis: the time of the calculation. What it means is in Analysis time.

"No edge"

For most matches it says No edge. Model and market are then too close together, or one of the rules applies: very low odds, a selection the model considers too uncertain, too large a deviation from the market, or no edge left after the cautious blend with the market price. That is intended: we only show an opportunity when we see an outcome as clearly more likely than the fair market price. You still see the analysis with all probabilities.

Will I get the odds at my provider too?

Not always. The opportunity and the performance record calculate with the Pinnacle odds at the time of the analysis; other providers are often lower, and odds move until kick-off. Compare the odds at your provider with Playable from: if they are below, the edge is gone according to our calculation.

Playable from is the break-even point according to the model. It follows solely from our probability: at 45.7%, the threshold is 2.19. Below that, the expected value is negative according to our calculation, above it positive.

How to use the value:

• If the odds at your provider are above "Playable from", the edge is still there, if smaller than at the time of the analysis.

• If they are below, the edge is gone.

The provider rows in the opportunity box are coloured accordingly: green with ✓ when the odds are above the threshold, red with ✕ when they are below, in each case for the odds at the time of the analysis. Odds move until kick-off, so it is worth comparing shortly before your decision.

The threshold depends on the model, not on what the market offers. It may be that no provider offers it at the moment; you can tell by the red rows.

At the bottom of the opportunity box it says Analysis: with date and time. That is the moment the model calculated this analysis.

All numbers of the opportunity belong to this moment: our probability, the edge and the odds in the At analysis column. Only these odds also count in the performance record. Odds keep moving afterwards; what your provider offers now can be higher or lower. From kick-off, the At kick-off column shows, for comparison, the odds shortly before the start.

For a final analysis, the analysis time is on average around 60 minutes before kick-off; for a preview, up to two days before.

Every match gets two analyses.

Preview

The preview is created up to two days before kick-off, as soon as both teams have played their previous match, and at the latest 24 hours before kick-off. It calculates with the expected lineup and shows the probabilities of all markets, the xG and the most likely scores. It never shows an opportunity, because the lineup and the odds are not yet the ones that count in the end. In the Match Center, the preview shows Edge check around … with the expected time of the final analysis.

Final analysis

The final analysis is created as soon as the lineups are official. They are only confirmed shortly before kick-off; on average, the final analysis is ready around 60 minutes before. Only then does the model calculate with the eleven players on each side who actually play, fetch fresh odds and check whether an opportunity is created. The opportunity box then shows Final analysis · Lineups confirmed.

What changes

• The xG and all probabilities are recalculated. If a regular is missing, the assessment can shift noticeably; the impacts show this before the final analysis.

• The xG score only exists in the final analysis.

• The opportunity only exists in the final analysis. Only it counts in the performance record.

• A match you have opened stays open: preview and final analysis together cost one slot of your free quota.

With the Alchemist plan, you can be notified as soon as a final analysis is ready.

Impacts before the match

After the preview, we check every hour until kick-off whether a regular is no longer in his team's expected starting XI or newly appears on the injury list with a reason that rules him out. That creates an Impact.

• In the Match Center, an Impacts box with a lightning bolt and a count per team appears. When you hover or tap, you see who is missing.

• On the match page, the Impacts section sits in the Analysis tab: who is missing and why he matters, with his share of the starting XI, the season figures, the recent matches and the rating with rank in the team and in the league, plus the effect in the model: "With X instead of him: team −0.08 xG (−3%), opponent +0.02 xG (+2%)".

• Detected gives the time. If the player was still in the expected starting XI until shortly before the match, it says "unexpectedly missing"; otherwise it says neutrally "missing".

• Only significant absences are shown: players whose absence noticeably weakens the team in the model, or who are among the best-rated in the team.

The basis is the starting XI expected by our data provider, not yet the confirmed lineup. The impacts change nothing about the preview and nothing about the opportunity; the final analysis calculates with the confirmed lineups of both teams anyway. From kick-off, they disappear, and the lineup is then in the Live tab.

Without access to the match, you see only a selection of this. You open everything else with one of your free matches or a plan; how that works is in What is free and which plans there are.

In-game impacts

During the match, the same box shows In-game impacts: events that change our assessment.

• Red cards and second yellows for players on the pitch. For a team's first sending-off, the direction is given: "Down a man: goal threat falls, the opponent's rises."

• Substitutions of key players, as "X for Y" with the minute.

• Substitutions due to injury, with the "injured" label.

Without access to the match, you see only a selection here too. The events flow into the probability of another goal.

As soon as a match is in progress, the match page opens the Live tab.

Probability of another goal

At the top, for each team, is our estimate that it scores at least one more goal before the end of regular time, with the minute played. 60% means: in comparable situations, the team still scored in roughly 60 out of 100 matches and did not in roughly 40. The two values are separate estimates and do not add up to 100%.

The value is based on our own model and is recalculated continuously during the match. At half-time it says Half-time: estimate paused. Sending-offs and substitutions flow in; what exactly happened is shown by the in-game impacts.

You see the values with access to the match. How to get access is in What is free and which plans there are.

Further sections in the Live tab

• Momentum: the pressure per minute as a curve.

• Timeline: goals, cards, substitutions and VAR decisions.

• Statistics: possession, shots, xG in the match, passes, duels and more.

• Commentary, on request only the key moments.

During the match, the opportunity box shows in the colour of the badge whether the opportunity is ahead: green means it would win at the current score; red means it would lose or can no longer win. After full time, the tab is called Match and additionally shows the xG review: the xG of the final analysis, the xG score, the final score after 90 minutes and the xG measured from the chances created. More in After the match: Review.

After full time, the match page gets the Review tab.

• The sentence on the match: what decided it, and whether the opportunity won.

• xG review: The xG of the final analysis is rounded to a score and compared with the score after 90 minutes, so without extra time. The verdict is Exact score, Right tendency (win or draw was right) or Missed. Next to it are the xG of the final analysis and the xG measured after the match from the chances created.

• The opportunity: Won at … or Lost at …, plus our model, the market (Pinnacle without margin at the time of the analysis) and Recalculated after full time: with the xG of both teams from the match, we run through all scores, using the same calculation as before the match. "Won in 6 out of 10 such matches" means: the match leaned towards it. If an opportunity won at a low value, luck was involved; if it lost at a high value, bad luck was involved.

• Influences: what happened in the match and how it affected the opportunity: sending-offs, decisive goals, late goals, missed penalties, turnarounds after the break.

• Finishing and goalkeepers: goals against xG, goals conceded against the opponent's xG on target.

• Match facts and Momentum.

If there was an opportunity, it is now listed with its outcome in the public performance record. The opportunity and the xG score can diverge: an opportunity can win although the xG score is wrong, and the other way round.

Right after full time, the Review is provisional: match data is often corrected during the night, and the Review is checked the day after; the Review status section shows where it stands. A single match says little about an assessment; only the performance record over many matches is meaningful.

Notifications for new final analyses and opportunities are part of the Alchemist plan. You set them up under My Account in Notifications.

Preparing Telegram

1. Open My Account and click Sign in with Telegram next to Telegram linked. Confirm the link in Telegram.

2. In Telegram, open the bot @DumbleScoreBot and send it /start. Only then is it allowed to message you.

Link first, then message the bot. If you message the bot first, a separate account is created that you will have to merge later. For email, your address must be verified in the account.

Setting up Analysis Notifications

In the Analysis Notifications card:

1. Choose the channel: Via Telegram and/or Via Email.

2. Choose what you want to receive:

   • All analyses (all leagues and teams)

   • Only selected leagues/teams: you receive a message when one of the conditions applies.

   • Use strategy preset: a saved preset from the performance record, for example only over 2.5 in two leagues.

   • No notifications switches them off.

3. With Only analyses with opportunities, only final analyses with an opportunity arrive. With Also receive results, you also receive the outcome after full time.

The message arrives as soon as the final analysis is ready, on average around 60 minutes before kick-off, with the selection, the odds, Playable from and the odds of your providers. In the email and in Telegram, Hot Picks are marked as such.

Further cards

• Subscription status: messages about your plan, by email or Telegram, for all accounts.

• Scenario Notifications (Alchemist): automatically assembled scenarios by Telegram or email, with scenario size, risk level and maximum number per day.

• Marketing: occasional emails about new features, can be opted out of.

The bell at the top right shows you messages on the website, such as replies from support.

The watchlist is your personal list. It is available in the Scout, Oracle and Alchemist plans.

Adding entries

• Opportunity: in the opportunity box, click Add to watchlist, as long as the match is not finished.

• Outlier: on the Outliers page, click Add to watchlist on a result.

• Scenario: on the Scenarios page, click Add to watchlist on a scenario.

Each selection can only be saved once.

Following and evaluating

At the top, you filter by All, Opportunities, Outliers and Scenarios. The Open and Completed tabs separate ongoing and decided entries. After full time, DumbleScore evaluates each entry automatically with the result of regular time.

The Statistics show your entries added up: Pending, Wins, Losses, Hit Rate, Profit and ROI, each with one unit at the saved odds. Scenarios stay out of the statistics.

The watchlist sends no notifications. If you want a message for new final analyses and opportunities, you need the Alchemist plan. How to set them up is in Notifications by email and Telegram.

Under Signals, you find three tabs with tools that work with odds:

• Outliers: odds from one provider that are clearly above the average of the other providers.

• Scenarios: combinations of three to five matches with an analysis (from the Scout plan).

• Arbitrage: matches where the best odds from different providers together cover all outcomes at less than 100%.

For outliers and arbitrage, the following applies to both:

• They are part of the Alchemist plan.

• Included are the matches of the next three days with the markets 1X2, over/under 2.5 and both teams score.

• The providers are Bet365, Pinnacle, 1xBet, Unibet, William Hill, Sporttip, Kalshi and Polymarket. The preselection follows your provider choice.

• Older odds are refreshed when you search; the time is shown with the results.

• You can put every result in the watchlist; for outliers, Open analysis leads to the match page.

Outliers and arbitrage are not opportunities: they only say that providers differ from each other, not that our model sees an edge. Scenarios, on the other hand, build on our analyses.

An outlier is a price that is clearly above what the other providers pay for the same outcome. Example: the market pays 1.85, 1.90 and 1.92 for a home win, one provider 2.20. So one provider rates the match differently from the other providers.

1. Open Signals, Outliers tab.

2. Choose the providers you use (at least one).

3. Click Search. The odds are refreshed if needed; that can take a moment.

4. Each result shows the match, the Market, the Selection, the provider's Odds, the Average of the others and the Deviation in percent. All odds shows the row of all providers.

5. With Add to watchlist, you save the result in the watchlist. If the odds have moved in the meantime, the page tells you; then search again.

How we calculate:

• It takes enough providers with odds for the same outcome; otherwise there is no reliable average.

• The average is the mean of the other odds, without the chosen provider.

• Long-shot odds are left out; there, differences between providers are normal.

• The Deviation is the odds compared with the average, in percent. Only clear deviations count as outliers.

• The largest deviations are shown.

An outlier is not an opportunity: the providers' average contains their margin, and our model plays no part in this calculation.

A scenario combines three, four or five matches with an analysis into one joint selection. The odds of the parts are multiplied; the scenario only wins if all parts win. The probability of that is correspondingly lower than for a single part.

What a scenario is made of

Eligible are matches in the next seven days that have not yet started and have an analysis. For each match, the final analysis applies as soon as it exists, otherwise the preview. Each match contributes one part:

• If the match has an opportunity, that is the part, at the current odds.

• If it has none, the system takes a safety part: the most likely 1X2 outcome, provided the model considers it safe enough.

Parts with an opportunity come first, then the safety parts. A scenario needs enough suitable matches; if there are too few, it says "No scenarios available at the moment." With the Final analyses only switch, you take only matches with a final analysis; because these are only created around 60 minutes before kick-off, it is then worth looking shortly before the matches.

How to use the page

1. Open Signals and the Scenarios tab.

2. Choose 3-Fold, 4-Fold or 5-Fold.

3. With Today's games only, you limit the selection to today, with Final analyses only to matches with a final analysis (off by default). Find new assembles new scenarios.

4. With Add to watchlist, you save a scenario; the watchlist evaluates it after the matches.

Scenarios are available from the Scout plan; with Scout, the matches come from your two leagues. With the Alchemist plan, you can have scenarios sent to you automatically under Notifications, with size, risk level and maximum number per day. How to set that up is in Notifications by email and Telegram. Scenarios do not count in the performance record.

Arbitrage uses differences in odds between providers. If you convert the best odds from different providers for all outcomes of a market into probabilities and the sum is below 100%, there is arithmetically a small plus for every outcome.

1. Open Signals, Arbitrage tab.

2. Choose at least two providers you use.

3. Click Search.

4. Each result shows the match, the Market, the arithmetical Profit in percent and, for each outcome, the Provider with the best odds.

Included are the matches of the next three days in the markets 1X2, over/under 2.5 and both teams score. Faulty odds rows whose probabilities together are below 100% are left out.

The plus only holds as long as the odds do not change and all providers accept the odds as shown. Odds move quickly; check them directly with the provider before you decide.

The performance record is public and visible without an account: every opportunity from final analyses with its outcome. How it is counted is in How the performance record counts.

What the page shows

• Key figures: the number of opportunities with won and lost, the hit rate, the ROI, the profit in units and the matches analysed.

• Profit over time: cumulative units, week by week, plus the Monthly breakdown.

• ROI trend: the rolling ROI over the last 300 opportunities. Individual weeks swing a lot; the rolling line shows whether the model is running above or below its long-term level.

• By market, By league and the League × market table with ROI per cell and the count in brackets. Fewer than 30 opportunities are marked as a small sample.

• How we count: the counting rules.

Filtering

1. Period: All time, This month, Last 30 days or Custom with From and To, then Apply.

2. Leagues & markets: With Add league, you choose a league and then the markets for it, for example only over 2.5 in the Premier League. Each league has its own markets. No market chosen means all markets of that league. Show results applies the selection.

3. With an active filter, Your selection, one by one appears: each chosen league and each market with its own figures. For comparison, the whole record is always shown next to it, labelled Full record in the interface.

Presets and sharing

• Save as preset stores the selection under a name in your account. Under My presets, you load or delete them, on all devices.

• With the Alchemist plan, you can also use a preset for the notifications for new final analyses: in the Analysis Notifications card with the option Use strategy preset. A preset chosen there can only be deleted once you choose a different one there.

• Copy link creates an address with your selection that you can share. Show full record clears the filter.

You can ask DumbleScore about matches, analyses, opportunities and the performance record directly in Claude or ChatGPT. The AI fetches the numbers from DumbleScore; the same rights and quotas apply as on the website.

Claude in one click

1. Open My Account and click Claude & ChatGPT, or go directly to Claude & ChatGPT.

2. Click Connect with Claude. The link opens claude.ai with the "Add custom connector" dialog already filled in. Confirm it.

3. You land on dumblescore.com: sign in and click Allow.

4. Back in Claude, ask your first question. On the first data request, Claude asks for permission; choose Always allow.

If the link does not work, Set up manually shows the steps: in Claude, under Settings > Connectors, add a custom connector with the name DumbleScore and the server address https://mcp.dumblescore.com.

ChatGPT

1. Open the ChatGPT tab and click Open chatgpt.com.

2. On chatgpt.com, create a custom MCP server: name DumbleScore, server URL https://mcp.dumblescore.com, authentication OAuth. The menu names can change; Show instructions gives the current steps.

3. dumblescore.com opens: sign in and click Allow.

4. Mention DumbleScore in the chat, for example: "Which matches have an opportunity on DumbleScore today?"

If the menu item is missing in your ChatGPT account, the feature is not enabled there; that is up to OpenAI.

What it costs and which plan you need

The connection costs nothing extra. You need a DumbleScore account, the free account is enough, and an account with Claude or ChatGPT. Your plan applies in the AI exactly as on the website: the free account 3 matches per week, Scout its two leagues, Oracle and Alchemist everything. The lists, the statistics, the tables and the performance record are free for everyone.

You do not need a Claude or ChatGPT subscription: the free Claude plan allows exactly one custom connector. In Claude Team and Enterprise, the admin must first approve the connector.

On a phone

Setting up is easiest in the browser on claude.ai, in the Claude desktop app or on chatgpt.com. After that, DumbleScore is also available in the Claude and ChatGPT apps on your phone.

Gemini and other apps

Gemini is not connected. Other apps that allow their own MCP connections connect via the server address https://mcp.dumblescore.com with sign-in through OAuth; for Claude Code, the command is in the Other apps tab. Trust only this address; DumbleScore uses no other.

Managing connections

Under Connected apps, you see every connection with date and last use. With Disconnect, you revoke an app's access. A plan change takes effect immediately, without signing in again.

Does every question use up one of my 3 matches?

No. The match lists, the results, the statistics, the tables, the team and player figures and the performance record never cost a slot. A match is only used up when you want to open the analysis of a specific match before kick-off and explicitly confirm that in the chat; the AI asks first ("This uses 1 of your 3 matches this week"). A list never unlocks anything. From minute 61 and after the end of the match, all analyses are free, as on the website.

If the quota is used up, the AI tells you where you stand (for example 3 of 3) and the next reset.

Why does the AI show me no opportunity for a match?

There are three reasons for that:

• The final analysis does not exist yet. It arrives on average around 60 minutes before kick-off; before that, there is only the preview without an opportunity. The AI tells you the expected time.

• You have not opened the match yet. Then the AI asks you whether it should use one of your slots.

• Our model sees no edge. That is the case for most matches; why is in What an opportunity is.

The AI gives different numbers from the website. Which is right?

The website, when it comes to our calculated values. The probabilities, the xG, the edge and the figures of the performance record come one to one from DumbleScore; locked values are not given to the AI at all, rather than placeholders. If the AI calculates something from them itself, such as an average over several matches, it can be wrong. If in doubt, ask: "Show me the raw data you used for that."

What does the AI see of me, and is it safe?

Your AI only reads matches, statistics, analyses and opportunities, exactly as you see them on the website. It can also answer questions about how to use DumbleScore from this help and links you to the matching section. Payment data, password and account settings are out of its reach, and it cannot change, buy or cancel anything. The only change it can trigger is unlocking a match from your weekly quota, and only with your confirmation in the chat.

DumbleScore does not see your chat. Only the queries the AI derives from it are transmitted, with their details such as league, market or date; for questions about the help, it is the search terms. These details are stored in a cleaned form: without email addresses and long strings of digits, and shortened. The answers are generated at Anthropic or OpenAI, whose rules apply. You can disconnect at any time under Claude & ChatGPT.

xG stands for "expected goals". The term is used in two senses.

Before the match, xG is our expectation: how many goals a team scores in this match according to our model, for example 1.62. It is an average and not a score: a team with 1.62 xG sometimes scores once, sometimes twice, sometimes not at all. All probabilities of the analysis arise from the xG of both teams; how that works is in The model: xG from the starting XI.

After the match, xG is a measurement: how many goals the chances a team actually had would have produced on average. We show this measured value after full time in the match statistics and in the Review, broken down by open play, set pieces and penalties. That way you can see whether a team played well and was unlucky, or the other way round.

The xG score is the xG of both teams, rounded to whole goals. So 1.62 to 1.19 becomes 1-1.

It appears only in the final analysis, together with its probability and the further likely scores. After full time, the xG review in the Review compares the xG score with the score after 90 minutes: Exact score, Right tendency or Missed.

The xG score is a forecast, not an opportunity. An opportunity is a question of price, not of the exact score: it can win although the xG score is off, and the other way round.

The fair odds are the price without margin. Any odds can be converted into a probability (1 divided by the odds). If you add up these probabilities across all outcomes of a market, the result is more than 100% because of the margin. We shrink all values in the same proportion until they add up to 100%, and convert them back into odds. That is the fair odds.

Example: odds of 2.10, 3.40 and 3.60 add up to around 105%. Without margin, the 2.10 corresponds to a fair probability of around 45% and thus fair odds of around 2.20.

The fair odds from Pinnacle are the yardstick for every opportunity. The market comparison in the analysis and the Biggest deviation box also calculate with fair probabilities.

If you convert a provider's odds for all outcomes of a market into probabilities, they add up to more than 100%, for example 105%. The 5% on top is the margin, the provider's mark-up.

The smaller the margin, the more precisely the odds show the market's actual expectation. We remove the margin before we compare odds with our model; the result is the fair odds. In the Signals, the providers' margin is shown with the results.

Pinnacle is regarded as one of the sharpest markets, with a very low margin; its odds show the market's expectation particularly precisely. That is why Pinnacle is our reference, twice over:

• As the fair price: Calculated without margin, the Pinnacle odds are the fair odds against which we measure whether a selection is an opportunity.

• In the performance record: Every opportunity counts at the Pinnacle odds at the time of the analysis. The rules are in How the performance record counts.

If fresh Pinnacle odds are missing for a match, there is no opportunity. Which additional providers you see with an opportunity is up to you, under Odds providers.

An opportunity is a selection (for example "Over 2.5" or "Arsenal or draw") whose odds are higher than they should be according to our calculation. It does not say who wins, but that the price is better than our assessment.

An opportunity is only created in the final analysis, only with fresh Pinnacle odds and only under fixed rules. If several selections pass all the rules, we take the most promising one: the one with the best edge in relation to the risk; there is at most one opportunity per match. Especially clear opportunities are called Hot Pick. Every opportunity counts in the public performance record, won or lost.

The rules in detail are in What an opportunity is, the display in Reading the opportunity box.

A Hot Pick is an opportunity with an especially clear edge. Before the normal check, a much stricter check runs in which the market price counts for more in the blend with our probability. If an edge remains even then, the selection is the opportunity of the match and a Hot Pick.

You recognise Hot Picks by the flame: in the Match Center, the whole row is tinted; in the opportunity box, the frame is orange and a note explains the label. The email and Telegram notifications mention it too. There is still at most one opportunity per match; the Hot Pick does not replace it, it is the opportunity. In the performance record, it counts like any other opportunity. More in What an opportunity is.

The edge says by how much the odds are better than our assessment. It is our probability times the odds minus 1, in percent. Example: 42.4% at odds of 2.57 gives around +9%. At 0%, the odds match our probability exactly; that is the Playable from threshold.

The opportunity box shows the edge of the opportunity, calculated with the Pinnacle odds at the time of the analysis. If the odds at your provider are lower, your edge is smaller or gone.

The edge alone does not make an opportunity: the selection must also pass all the rules, including the cautious blend of our probability with the fair market price. The rules are in What an opportunity is. A large edge is not a better sign: if our assessment differs too much from the market, we pass entirely, because that far from the market, the market usually knows more.

A unit (in the interface also "Unit" or "u") is the fixed amount the performance record calculates with. Every opportunity counts with exactly one unit at the Pinnacle odds at the time of the analysis, regardless of how large the edge was.

• Won opportunity: odds minus 1 unit. At odds of 1.85, that is +0.85.

• Lost opportunity: minus 1 unit.

• Void opportunity: 0, does not count.

The Profit in the performance record is the sum of these units; the ROI sets it in relation to the number of opportunities. What a unit is in money is up to you; DumbleScore makes no recommendation.

ROI (return on investment) is the profit in units divided by the number of opportunities, in percent. Example: 100 opportunities with a total of +5 units give an ROI of +5%.

A positive ROI means profit, not a hit rate above 50%: opportunities at odds above 2.00 can lose more often than they win and still bring a profit; at low odds, it is the other way round.

Fewer than 30 opportunities are not statistically meaningful; the performance record marks them as a small sample. The ROI trend there shows the rolling ROI over the last 300 opportunities. How it is counted is in How the performance record counts.

The preview is the first analysis of a match. It is created up to two days before kick-off, as soon as both teams have played their previous match, based on the expected lineup.

It shows the xG of both teams, the probabilities of all markets and the most likely scores. It never shows an opportunity, and it does not count in the performance record. The opportunity box shows Preview · final analysis around …, the Match Center shows Edge check. Preview and final analysis of the same match together cost one slot of the free quota.

More in From the preview to the final analysis.

The final analysis (in the interface also Final analysis) is the analysis with the confirmed lineup. It is created as soon as the lineups are official, on average around 60 minutes before kick-off, and calculates with the eleven players on each side who actually play and with fresh odds.

Only the final analysis can have an opportunity, only it shows the xG score, and only its opportunities count in the performance record. The opportunity box shows Final analysis · Lineups confirmed.

More in From the preview to the final analysis.

1X2 is the outcome after regular time, that is, after 90 minutes without extra time: 1 means a win for the home team, X a draw, 2 a win for the away team.

The model calculates a probability for each of the three outcomes; together they add up to 100%. In the Match Center, they appear in the three boxes of each row; in the analysis, in the All probabilities section under Result.

Double chance covers two of the three outcomes:

• 1X: home win or draw ("Bayern or draw")

• X2: draw or away win ("Arsenal or draw")

• 12: home win or away win ("No draw")

The probability is higher than for the single outcome, the odds lower in return.

"Both teams score" (in the interface Both teams score) only asks whether each team scores at least one goal: Yes or No. The final score does not matter: 1-1 and 3-2 count as Yes, 2-0 and 0-0 as No.

The model calculates the probability from the xG of both teams. Both Yes and No can be an opportunity.

Over/under concerns the total number of goals in the match, no matter who scores them. Over 2.5 means at least three goals, Under 2.5 at most two. Because the line ends in .5, the result is always unambiguous.

The model calculates the lines 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5; in the analysis, they appear in the All probabilities section under Goals.

A plan lifts the limit of three matches per week, entirely or for your leagues. There are three plans, all monthly and cancellable at any time. The prices for your country are under Pricing; in the Info menu, the entry is called Pricing.

Scout

Scout is the plan for two leagues of your choice. There, you open all league matches without limit, including opportunity, impacts, Live and Review, and you get scenarios and the watchlist.

• Only leagues are available to choose, no cups and no European competitions.

• For all other matches, the quota of three matches per week applies as in the free account, with the reset on Saturday at 12:45 UTC.

• You choose your leagues when buying, in the Choose your 2 leagues step, and can change them once a month under My Account in Your leagues with Change leagues.

• No coupons apply to Scout.

Oracle

Oracle gives you all analyses and opportunities in all leagues, cups and European competitions, plus scenarios and watchlist. If you open the analyses yourself in the Match Center, Oracle serves you well.

Alchemist

Alchemist includes everything in Oracle and additionally:

• under Signals, the Outliers and Arbitrage tabs (the Scenarios tab is already included from Scout);

• notifications by Telegram or email as soon as a final analysis or an opportunity is ready, optionally only for selected leagues, teams or a preset from the performance record;

• automatically assembled scenarios by Telegram or email.

If you want to be notified in time before kick-off, take Alchemist: final analyses are created on average around 60 minutes before kick-off, and if you are not in the Match Center at that moment, you only find out through the message.

In all plans

Every plan also applies in Claude and ChatGPT. Finished matches and matches in progress from minute 61 are free for everyone anyway. An expired plan does not automatically fall back to the free account; the website then tells you that your plan has expired, and you decide whether to renew it or use the free account.

There is no trial period with full access. You can try DumbleScore with the free account: three matches per week with the full analysis and opportunity, with no time limit and no credit card.

Coupons

Coupon codes give new customers a discount on the first month of a plan. How to redeem one:

1. Under My Account, open the plans with View available plans, or go to Pricing.

2. Click Redeem coupon, enter the code and click Apply. The discount appears on the chosen plan.

3. Complete the purchase. From the second month, the normal price applies.

A code is only valid for new customers who have never paid for a plan, and once per account. No coupons apply to the Scout plan.

Payment runs through Stripe, a payment service provider; DumbleScore stores no card data. Which methods you are offered depends on your country. Common are credit and debit cards, Apple Pay, Google Pay and local payment methods. You see the exact selection at checkout, before anything is charged.

The currency follows your Region under My Account. All plans run monthly and renew until you cancel. If the connection to the payment page does not work, contact support; we will send you a direct payment link.

1. Open My Account and click View available plans in the subscription card.

2. Choose the new plan. Your current plan is marked as such.

3. Confirm the change in the dialog.

The change takes effect immediately:

• To a higher plan (for example Oracle to Alchemist): the price difference is charged pro rata for the rest of the month.

• To a lower plan (for example Alchemist to Oracle): you pay the lower price from now on and receive the difference as a pro-rata credit. Features of the higher plan, such as the outliers, the arbitrage and the notifications, are gone immediately. When changing to Scout, you choose your two leagues.

With the free account, every plan goes through the normal purchase.

You can cancel at any time:

1. Open My Account.

2. Click Cancel subscription in the subscription card.

3. Confirm with Yes, cancel.

Your plan stays active until the end of the paid period; the card shows Valid until with the date. After that, nothing more is charged, and you are back on the free account. Your watchlist is kept.

Within 14 days of purchase, we refund the full amount on request, no questions asked. Just write to support.

To delete your account, write to support, via the Support chat in the Info menu or by email to support@dumblescore.com. We delete your account and your data in line with the GDPR.

Cancel an active plan beforehand under My Account; how that works is in Cancelling and refunds. Connected AI apps lose access with the deletion.

There is no dedicated app. DumbleScore is built for the phone and runs in any mobile browser.

If you want to reach the site quickly, add a shortcut to your home screen via your browser's menu:

• Safari (iPhone): Share, then Add to Home Screen.

• Chrome (Android): Menu, then Add to Home screen.

You receive notifications in the Alchemist plan by Telegram or email. You can also ask DumbleScore in the Claude or ChatGPT app on your phone; how to connect them is in Connecting Claude and ChatGPT.

Yes, twice over.

The Telegram group. There, you can ask questions about the model and the performance record and reach the founder directly. You find the link in the Info menu under Telegram.

The bot @DumbleScoreBot. It sends you notifications about final analyses, opportunities and scenarios (Alchemist plan) and messages about your plan. For it to be allowed to:

1. First link Telegram under My Account with Sign in with Telegram.

2. Then open the bot in Telegram and send it /start.

The order matters: if you message the bot first, it creates a separate account with your Telegram ID that you will have to merge with your account later. You can also sign in to DumbleScore directly with Telegram; how that works is in Creating an account and signing in.

The fastest way to reach us is the support chat in your account:

1. In the Info menu, open the Support chat entry.

2. Click New Ticket.

3. Describe your request and click Create Ticket.

Our reply appears in the ticket; the bell at the top right shows you new messages. Without an account, email us at support@dumblescore.com.

For questions about a match, the match and the time are helpful; for questions about the account, the email address you are signed in with. You can also ask questions about the model and the performance record in the Telegram group.